Forecast for the week August 11, 2014 - August 15, 2014

11 August, 2014

In the near future we expect a number of macroeconomic parameters in the Eurozone to deteriorate after the Russian Federation introduces retaliatory sanctions on the EU. This week watch the final estimate of the consumer price index in the Eurozone for the month of July. CPI is expected to be 0.4% (y/y) for the reporting period, reflecting the development of deflationary processes in the Eurozone. Furthermore, the Euro may experience pressure from the likely slowdown of GDP growth rates in the Eurozone in Q2 2014 from 0.9% (y/y) to 0.7% (y/y), and of industrial production from 0.5% (y/y) to 0.1% (y/y). We do not rule out the possibility that the Euro may fall to the level of 1.3300 by the end of the week.

This week the British currency will account for unemployment figures and the Bank of England's quarterly report about inflation in the country. We don't anticipate any changes to the previous estimate of Great Britain's GDP for Q2 2014. We believe that, by the end of the week, the pound will test this summer's lows in the region of the 1.6700 mark.

The USD/JPY pair will probably continue to consolidate in the range of 101.50-102.50. The world's reserve currency may be bolstered by July's figures for industrial production and retail sales in the US, while the yen may receive support from information about Japan's GDP for Q2 2014, and the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine. 


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