Forecast for the week of 08.25.2014-08.29.2014

August 25, 2014

Last week's speech by J. Yellen at Jackson Hole provided substantial support to the world's reserve currency in the FOREX market. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve said that in the event of a further improvement in the US labor market or a more rapid rise in inflation, an increase in the federal funds rate may happen sooner than it is expected by the FOMC now.

This week, pay attention to the August CPI in the euro zone. According to a number of forecasts, annual growth for this indicator can slow from 0.4% to 0.1%, which would require the ECB to further expand monetary stimulus in the euro zone. By the end of the week the EUR/USD pair may be reduced to the level of 1.3100

On Tuesday, British currency buyers will closely monitor the statistics on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending in the UK. In case of a July decrease of this index below 43.3 thousand, the pound may test the level of 1.6500. On the same day an unpleasant surprise lies in wait for buyers of the Kiwi. In case of the projected decline from 247 million to (-475 million) of New Zealand's trade balance in July, the NZDUSD pair risks falling back to its 0.8350 low of last week.

The USDJPY pair may rise to the level of 105.00 if the 104.20 high is renewed. American currency can be helped by data on the number of new home sales and the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States. We believe that the second estimate of the US GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2014 published on Thursday will not cause significant resonance in dollar assets. 

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