Forecast for the week of 09.01.2014 – 09.05. 2014

1 September, 2014

Last week the unified European currency dropped by 1 figure, which facilitated a slowing of the consumer price index in the Eurozone from 0.4% (y/y) to 0.3% (y/y), and an acceleration of GDP growth rates in the US in Q2 2014 to 4.2% (q/q). Last year the growth of the interest differential between 10-year US and German bonds from 92 basis points to 145 basis points triggered the gradual flow of capital from the Old World to the New World.

On Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair, which has not experienced special problems due to the Russian sanctions restricting exports of Australian food into the Russian Federation, will test the level of 0.9370 because Australia's key lending rate will likely be preserved at 2.50%.

This week market participants will pay close attention to the meeting of the ECB, where the key interest rate in the Eurozone is expected to be retained at 0.15%. However, Mario Draghi's subsequent soft rhetoric may throw the euro below the 1.3100 mark.

On Thursday, the Bank of England and its European counterpart will apparently refrain from changing the key interest rate, leaving it at 0.50%. Nevertheless, the British currency seems to continue to be under pressure amid August's likely slowdown of the business activity index in Great Britain's industrial and service sectors. The pound is in danger of dropping to last week's low of 1.6535.

Buyers of the USD/JPY pair await another gift on Friday: data on US employment and unemployment. The expected growth of NFPR by 200,000 given a drop in unemployment from 6.2% to 6.1% will likely support dollar-denominated assets. We expect the USD/JPY pair to continue to grow to the level of 104.50-105.00.


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