Main Events of the Week

July 15, 2014

On Monday 14 July the US dollar was traded mixed, having almost no changes to the dollar index amid absence of significant macro statistics in the majority of countries. 

The US dollar strengthened its positions vs. the yen, the pound sterling, and the New Zealand dollar; but decreased vs. the euro and the Canadian dollar. On Monday the euro was traded upwards, having almost no reaction to Euro-Zone Industrial Production, and speech of ECB’s Mario Draghi. The Euro-Zone Industrial Production dropped in May by 1.1% m/m, having almost coincided with the expectations. The decrease appeared to be the most considerable since September 2012; however, it was not a surprise after weak Industrial Production released recently in the countries of the Euro-Zone. 

ECB’s Draghi repeated in his speech the key issues of the July Meeting in terms of monetary policy decision. International Monetary Fund announced on Monday that QE may stimulate Euro-Zone growth and inflation; he also marked potential benefits of bond purchase on the part of ECB. 

The yen weakened amid the growth of Japanese stock market before the announcement of BOJ Monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The growth of Japanese industrial production was revised upwards in comparison with initial estimate. According to final data Japanese industrial production increase in May by 0.7% m/m after the decrease by 2.8% in April, which appeared to be higher than initial estimates at the level of +0.5% m/m. Annual Rate growth composed 1%, not 0.8% as it was reported earlier. 

The New Zealand dollar was traded downwards amid NZ Housing Market. REINZ House Price Index dropped in June by 0.3% m/m, the decrease continues for the 2nd month in a row. REINZ announced that the prices had almost no changes in many regions and sales of existing houses require more time. REINZ Home Sales dropped in June by 6.1% y/y – the annual decrease of sales continues for the 8th month in a row. 

On Tuesday in the USA Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released; on Wednesday – Producer Price Index, Capital Inflow, Industrial Production, NAHB House Price Index, and FOMC Economic Review the Beige Book; on Thursday – Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; and on  Yellen is due to speak Friday – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. On Tuesday and Wednesday Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in the US Congress. The first speech appears to be more important. During the second day theses of the first day are usually repeated, but something new may appear. 

On Tuesday in the Euro-Zone Trade Balance will be released; on Thursday – Final Inflation Rate; and on Friday – Current Account. On Tuesday in Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released, the decrease of the index is expected. On Tuesday in Italy Final Inflation Rate will be released; and on Wednesday – Trade Balance. 

On Tuesday in the UK Inflation Rate will be also released; and on Wednesday – Labor Market. Growth of annual inflation rate is expected, and continuation of decrease of the UK Unemployment Change. BOE Governor Carney is dueue to testify about the Financial Stability Report at the House of Commons Treasury Committee Hearing. The results of 2-days BOJ Meeting will be announced on Tuesday; on Wednesday BOJ Monthly Repost will be released; and on Friday – BOJ 11-13 July meeting Minutes. On Wednesday in China big block of data will be released (GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investments. 

On Tuesday in Australia last Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes and New Motor Vehicle Sales will be released; on Wednesday – Westpac Leading Index; and on Thursday – NAB Quarterly Business Confidence. On Wednesday in New Zealand Quarterly Consumer Price Index will be released. On Wednesday Bank of Canada Rates Meeting, BOC Press-Conference will take place, and Quarterly Monetary Policy Report will be released. On Friday Inflation Rate and Wholesale Sales will be released in Canada.

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