The euro meets February in equilibrium

February 2, 2015

After a frantic and nervous January the euro/dollar seems to have nothing to fear - but ahead is on intense week of statistics, and who knows what it will bring.

The euro/dollar opened February steadily and quietly. The main currency pair is trading around the 1.13 level - at the minimum of twelve years - finding a certain equilibrium point after a volatile beginning of the year. The ensuing week, according to tradition, will bring a lot of statistical data, which will be important to understanding the global economic picture. There is likely to be plenty of movement.

Friday statistics on US GDP was controversial. According to the results of the fourth quarter of 2014 the US economy grew by 2.6% y/y against the forecast of growth of 3.3%. These figures are much weaker than what we've seen before: in the second quarter GDP grew by 4.6% in the third by 5% y/y, and there were no signs of a recession.

Are there obstacles to the recovery of the US economy? Undoubtedly there are. Here, the main driving force behind everything is the consumer demand. If it was weaker due to weather or interruptions in the employment sector - the dynamics will immediately affect the global GDP. Of course, this is only one aspect, but its importance can hardly be overestimated.

According to averaged market expectations, the statistics for the first quarter of 2015 would also be low - less than 3% GDP growth, as both Europe and Asia is not in the best shape.

I emphasize that we have seen only the first, preliminary assessment of GDP. In recent years, the numbers are very often - almost always - significantly revised.
 
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