2 April, 2015
The pair is under the improved attitude pressure towards the dollar as well as the euro sales amid the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program. The Eurozone annual growth rate, smaller than expected M3 (4.0% in February compared with expected growth by 4.3%), as well as a continued uncertainty about the situation in Greece put pressure upon the pair. However, the attitude towards the euro has improved after stronger than expected Germany GfK consumer confidence index growth (to 10.0 in April from 9.7 in March while it was expected 9.9).
We recommend to short with the first target of 1.0750-1.0770. Shall the pair overcome this level, the level of 1.0630-1.0650 may become the new target.
The pair is trading under the market improved attitude pressure towards the dollar and the British pound sales within the declining pound/yen amid the easing risk appetite. The market’s good attitude towards the pound was caused by the UK February retail sales growth that exceeded our expectations (+ 0.7% m/m, + 5.7% y/y while it was forecasted + 0.4% and + 4.7%) and according to the CBI, the retail sales index also exceeded our expectations in March (+18 in March against +1 in February while it was forecasted + 15). The pair potential decrease is limited by the demand for the pound now.
Be advised to short to 1.4750-1.4770. The second target is the level of 1.4680-1.4700.
The pair is supported by the improved attitude towards the US dollar and the US Treasury bond yields growth amid lower than expected initial jobless claims number. According to the Markit, the pair is also supported by the stronger than expected prior composite purchasing managers index growth (PMI). In addition, the USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan extremely loose monetary policy.
It is now recommended to sell with the first target of 118.50-118.70. If the first target is overcome the level of 118.00-118.20 may become the new target.
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
Daily chart: The pair is obviously aimed towards the upper Bollinger band (125.58). Expectations: falling to 124.20 and then rise to 125.58...
The daily chart: the pair is falling inside Bollinger envelopes, which may indicate potential of this medium-term decline around the bottom band (121.62), as ADX is insufficient for impulsive moves...
The pair tends to rise in the area of the upper Bollinger band (1.5735). However, it has a dynamic (descending) character, plus H1 gives a purely Southern pattern, so the bulls are expected at a lower part...
Daily chart: flat within the upper envelope (122.21-124.96) continues, whereas the spin axis is around 124.00. ADX parameter is not sufficient to replace current tendency...
Daily chart envelopes are griped and now there is a tendency that the upper Bollinger band is going to be the objective (1.58)...
Daily chart bears still press and now a new support level is 1.0843 (the bottom Bollinger band). Below we have a small downfall to the 5th figure...
Daily chart: strong support in the area of the middle Bollinger band (1.1183) can bounce the pair to the area 1.1345...
This week we shall expect that flat tendency on this metal will continue. From one hand, Fed Reserve lowered its forecast on macroeconomic indicators and US dollar started to be actively sold against this background. Descending tendency as applied to US dollar is positive to gold...
We have a predicted technical pullback from a strong support represented by the middle Bollinger band (122.54), which finds its place within a pullback to the entrance point according to the pattern O&U (125.00)...
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