Watching the Fed’s words

April 8, 2015

This evening sees the release of minutes to the 17-18 March FOMC meeting, where once again the Fed took with one hand (removing the word ‘patient’ from the statement) but gave in other ways (adjusting other wording, revising down future rate projections). The high point of the dollar index for the year was seen three days before the meeting, with the result securing the dollar turn-around. Given the change in wording, then the minutes could well offer further clues as to the Fed’s thinking. For now, the dollar still looks like it is consolidating, but a more dovish set of minutes, coming on the back of the weaker employment report last week, could well place further downward pressure on the Greenback.

Overnight, we’ve seen the yen recover a touch after the latest BoJ meeting, where policy was kept on hold. There were some residual hopes for further stimulus measures, but it’s looking more likely when the BoJ produces its next round of forecasts, either at the end of this month or in July. USDJPY is back below the 120.00 level as a result, but this move could prove fleeting should expectations build for later this month. Elsewhere, Greece will issues 6-month t-bills today which will put it in focus once again, together with the visit by Greek PM Tsipras to Russia.

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