AUDUSD consolidates, could downtrend resume?

April 20, 2015

The near term bias for AUDUSD is neutral as the pair has appeared to have bottomed at 0.7532 following a decline from the September 2014 high of 0.9400. Prices rose to a high of 0.7841 but the current rebound could be seen as a short term correction before the downtrend resumes as the outlook remains bearish as can be seen by the Ichimoku cloud which is falling. Also the 200-day moving is falling and this is a bearish signal.

Prices are piercing into the cloud but a move further would find resistance at the top of the cloud and at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.6008 (2008 low) to 1.1078 (2011 high). This barrier comes in at 0.7946. A failure to break above this resistance would see prices fall back to retest the low of 0.7532. Below this the 78.6% Fibonacci comes into view at 0.7096.

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