Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 May 2015

May 11, 2015

First, let’s review last week’s forecast:

- the forecast EUR/USD was fulfilled 100%. The pair was predicted to stay in a sideways trend, with a possible descent to 1.0800. As it happened, on Tuesday the pair fell to around 1.0700-1.0850, remained there for about an hour and then went up in order to finish the week at the point it had started  from;

- the GBP/USD pair was sticking to the predictions about a sideways trend all the way till Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than was expected initially. However, this was followed by the announcement of the UK election results, which surprised both politicians and financiers. As a consequence, the pair soared up by over 200 points;

- most analysts and indicators asserted that the USD/JPY pair would try to consolidate in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather small group foretold a rapid downwards rebound. In fact, both groups proved to be right. At the start of the week, the bulls were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below 120.00. However, they then weakened, and the bears took over. Nonetheless, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, back to 119.70, which it has been fluctuating around since the end of March;

 - the forecast for USD/CHF was that the pair would continue to mirror EUR/USD. Judging by last week’s chart, the forecast proved to be 100% accurate.

Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on diverse technical and graphical methods of analysis, the following can be suggested:  

- EUR/USD is likely to remain in its sideways trend, fluctuating along 1.1230. At the very least, the can be concluded as you look at the neat split among the experts’ opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (at a loss) - 56%. The indicator readings are not much different: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main support levels are 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, and the main resistance levels are 1.1290 and 1.1440;

- the vast majority of the indicators (87%) on H4 and D1 foretell growth for GBP/USD. The analysts differ: ↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ - 44%. As the pair has almost reached a high level of 1.5600, it’s quite likely to try and break through the resistance and settle in the range of 1.5475-1.5785. At the same time, there’re good chances that the pair will fail to do so and will actually start moving down to the 1.5000 support level;  

 - the forecasts of the analysts and the indicators regarding USD/JPY also differ (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ - 45%; indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23% ). However, both groups agree on the Pivot Point being at 119.70. Support will be at 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20, with resistance at 120.05, 120.30 and 120.85;

- there’s concord among the analysts and indicators about USD/CHF – over 75% and 56% respectively suggest that the pair should rise and consolidate in the range of 0.9300-0.9400. The next support level is 0.9190, and the next resistance level is 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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