1 June, 2015
Let us start with a review of the forecast for the previous week:
- two scenarios were suggested for EUR/USD. One of them, supported by 52% of the analysts and 82% of the indicators, came true – the pair broke through the strong support at 1.1000, reached the zone of 1.0800 and, after a rebound, on Friday returned to where it had started – the level of 1.1000, which has now changed from support to resistance;
- there was total discord regarding GBP/USD among both analysts and indicators last week. Yet this pair also behaved decisively by immediately breaking through the strongest support at 1.5500 and running stepwise to the level below – the next support around 1.5300;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled and even exceeded expectations. The pair was predicted to go up to 122.00 while it actually managed to rise above 124.00, reaching the high of July 2007;
- the behavior of USD/CHF has become very predictable lately – a strong mirror correlation with EUR/USD. Something similar took place last week – USD/CHF was expected to rise to a very strong resistance level of 0.9500 followed by a rebound downwards, which did happen.
Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the majority of the experts (↑ – 69%, → – 12%, ↓ – 19%) predict a steady rise for the EUR/USD pair. The technical indicators on the H4 timeframe concur. Yet on D1 they show the opposite – a downward movement. Furthermore, the systems of graphical analysis clearly draw a rebound downwards from the strong level of resistance 1.1000 to at least last week’s support around 1.0800. In fact, this appears to be a most likely scenario;
- there’s a real clash between the analysts and the indicators regarding the forecast for GBP/USD. Most of the former are for a rise (↑ – 61%, → – 15%, ↓ – 24%) whereas the latter predict a fall (↑ – 17%, → – 8%, ↓ – 75%). Considering that last week, contrary to the expectations, instead of rebounding off the support of 1.5500, GBP/USD broke through it, the pair can be expected to hold out in the range of 1.5250-1.5500 for at least a week this time. Already on Monday or Tuesday it should be clear whether the pair will take a timeout or continue its fall to 1.5000;
- both experts (↑ – 57%, → – 14%, ↓ – 29%) and indicators (↑ – 78%, → – 18%, ↓ – 4%) foretell USD/JPY to rise further to the next symbolic high of 126.00, which the pair reached last all of 15 years ago. This historic charge may turn out not so easy to execute, and the pair may have to keep charging, pushing off the support in the area of 123.20-123.60;
- yet again, there is nothing original for USD/CHF – an inverse correlation with EUR/USD and no independent escapades. The most probable scenario is a rebound from 0.9400 to 0.9540. Or alternatively, a fall to 0.9280.
Roman Butko, NordFX
First, a review of last week's forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled: all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week...
First, a review of last week's forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points up to the level of 1.1330...
First, a review of last week's forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through - it would go up to 1.1170...
First, a review of last week's forecast: as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south...
First, a review of last week's forecast:as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000...
First, a review of last week's forecast: as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970 - 1.1180...
As to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled - the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down...
First, a review of last week's forecast: as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled...
First, a review of last week's forecast: â€“ as to EUR/USD, those 20% of analysts, suggesting the gradual rise of the pair, alike the rise of USD/CHF after the ˜Black Thursday...