15 June, 2015
First, a few words about the forecast for the past week:
- most experts and technical indicators (61%) predicted that EUR/USD would rise further to 1.1500. The pair indeed went up, quickly reached a very strong level of resistance in the zone of 1.1280-1.1300 and then rolled back, repeating the scenario of the first week of June and finishing the five days at 1.1260;
- last week saw a continued battle between the analysts and indicators regarding the future of GBP/USD. The former, for the most part (77%), were for the pair’s rise, the latter – for its fall. Looking at the chart, you can see how convincing the victory of the experts turned out to be – climbing up at an angle of 45 degrees, the pair reached the symbolic mark of 1.5550 by Friday;
- USD/JPY apparently decided that it was ascending too fast and, instead of the expected continuation of growth, made a swift nosedive, turning the 123.80 support level into resistance;
- USD/CHF was expected to fall to 0.9340 at the beginning of the week and then rebound upwards. The pair indeed went down but, dashingly breaking through the level of 0.9340, changed it from support to a Pivot Point under somewhat prevailing bearish tendencies.
Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be concluded:
- the majority of the experts (71%) predict that EUR/USD may fall to 1.1050, assuming the pair’s monthly sideways trend will be in a 1.1050-1.1350 corridor. The indicators on H4 and D1 also support the idea of a sideways trend with Pivot Points on the line of 1.1260. With this, they don’t rule out the pair may rise at the start of the week;
- as for the future of GBP/USD, the analysts are at a total loss (↑ – 29%, → – 29%, ↓ – 42%). The indicators however are clearly (83%) for the pair’s rise to the level of 1.5680. Support is around 1.5440 – if you consider graphical analysis, the pair is bound to fall to this level first;
- there’s no unanimity among the experts about USD/JPY either. The summary of their forecasts produces a 122.45-125.00 corridor with a Pivot Point at 123.50. On the D1 timeframe, the indicators totally agree with the analysts. As for the indications on H4, they show a possible fall to the bottom boundary of the corridor early in the week;
- as for the USD/CHF pair, 67% of the experts predict its rise at least to the main level of resistance of the previous week around 0.9400. In case the pair manages to break through this defence line, its next target will become 0.9500. However, the indicators on H1, H4, D1 and even W1 persistently assert the opposite, giving a distinct advantage to the bears. Acting usually as a third force, graphical analysis has sided with the human mind this time – it shows the pair’s rise to 0.9400 first and then its return to support at 0.9300 or 0.9250.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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