Four reasons to buy S&P500. Forecast for the week 22 - 26 of June

22 June, 2015

XAU/USD:

This week we shall expect that flat tendency on this metal will continue. From one hand, Fed Reserve lowered its forecast on macroeconomic indicators and US dollar started to be actively sold against this background. Descending tendency as applied to US dollar is positive to gold. From another hand, drop of 10 years' state treasuries indicate decline of inflation expectations and is negative to XAU/USD. Oil failed to benefit from weakness of the US currency after Fed Reserve's meeting and trades with both contracts (Brent è WTI) ended in red based on results of the past week. That made 10 years' state treasuries to lose 8.8 points and get to 2.26%. Ascending tendency on the US share market will affect gold because capital will move from gold reserves and get to stock market. This week we expect flat 1185 -1210.

XPT/USD and XPD/USD:

This week both metals are expected to grow slowly. First, metals are supported by weakness of the US currency after Fed Reserve's meeting held on June 17. At present, there are no market drivers that are able to maintain demand in US dollar. Secondly, based on May results, car demand in US, Great Britainand Japan raised which is positive for these metals. Thirdly, 5 consecutive weeks of decline of these metals can make investors lock in profit in their short positions. So, this week we should open Buy positions on XPT/USD on growth of quotations to the area 1077/1060 and take profit on the point 1100 and Buy with XPD/USD on decline of quotations down to 701/695 and take profit on the point 729.

S&P500:

Bulls are expected to dominate this week. FOMC is not about to toughen its policy and the past week yield of 2 years' treasuries dropped by 9 points down to the level 0.62%. Besides, we expect a positive release on durable goods to be published this week. Strong data on retail and car sales along with growth of average salary allow to expect the data to be above the median line of forecast that will support demand in securities. Then, Nasdaq index was among the leaders the past week, which also indicates continuation of an ascending trend. Usually, growth of this indicator tells about demain in risky assets, because Nasdaq index includes securities with high P/E ratio. Finally, VIX is now based in the neutral area on the level of 13.96, which also supports stock market. So, this week we should open Buy positions on growth of quotations to the area 2101/2080 and take profit on the point 2135.

Alexander Goryachev

Analyst of «FreshForex» company


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We shall buy from the area 124.20

Daily chart: The pair is obviously aimed towards the upper Bollinger band (125.58). Expectations: falling to 124.20 and then rise to 125.58...

Flat as a preparation for decline

The daily chart: the pair is falling inside Bollinger envelopes, which may indicate potential of this medium-term decline around the bottom band (121.62), as ADX is insufficient for impulsive moves...

We wait for growth towards 1.5640 and shall sell from there

The pair tends to rise in the area of the upper Bollinger band (1.5735). However, it has a dynamic (descending) character, plus H1 gives a purely Southern pattern, so the bulls are expected at a lower part...


Flat 123.73-124.03

Daily chart: flat within the upper envelope (122.21-124.96) continues, whereas the spin axis is around 124.00. ADX parameter is not sufficient to replace current tendency...

Looking to buy around 1.5552

Daily chart envelopes are griped and now there is a tendency that the upper Bollinger band is going to be the objective (1.58)...

Key support for Euro - 1.0843

Daily chart bears still press and now a new support level is 1.0843 (the bottom Bollinger band). Below we have a small downfall to the 5th figure...


Waiting when euro in the area 1.1294 and sell

Daily chart: strong support in the area of the middle Bollinger band (1.1183) can bounce the pair to the area 1.1345...

We shall sell from 124.00

We have a predicted technical pullback from a strong support represented by the middle Bollinger band (122.54), which finds its place within a pullback to the entrance point according to the pattern O&U (125.00)...

Forecast for the week 1st - 5th of June

This week we have to expect that a descending trend would continue. Firstly, investors expect that FRS will toughen monetary policy which will boost demand in USD and, in its turn, to increase pressure on precious metal...

  


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