Four reasons to buy S&P500. Forecast for the week 22 - 26 of June

June 22, 2015


This week we shall expect that flat tendency on this metal will continue. From one hand, Fed Reserve lowered its forecast on macroeconomic indicators and US dollar started to be actively sold against this background. Descending tendency as applied to US dollar is positive to gold. From another hand, drop of 10 years' state treasuries indicate decline of inflation expectations and is negative to XAU/USD. Oil failed to benefit from weakness of the US currency after Fed Reserve's meeting and trades with both contracts (Brent è WTI) ended in red based on results of the past week. That made 10 years' state treasuries to lose 8.8 points and get to 2.26%. Ascending tendency on the US share market will affect gold because capital will move from gold reserves and get to stock market. This week we expect flat 1185 -1210.


This week both metals are expected to grow slowly. First, metals are supported by weakness of the US currency after Fed Reserve's meeting held on June 17. At present, there are no market drivers that are able to maintain demand in US dollar. Secondly, based on May results, car demand in US, Great Britainand Japan raised which is positive for these metals. Thirdly, 5 consecutive weeks of decline of these metals can make investors lock in profit in their short positions. So, this week we should open Buy positions on XPT/USD on growth of quotations to the area 1077/1060 and take profit on the point 1100 and Buy with XPD/USD on decline of quotations down to 701/695 and take profit on the point 729.


Bulls are expected to dominate this week. FOMC is not about to toughen its policy and the past week yield of 2 years' treasuries dropped by 9 points down to the level 0.62%. Besides, we expect a positive release on durable goods to be published this week. Strong data on retail and car sales along with growth of average salary allow to expect the data to be above the median line of forecast that will support demand in securities. Then, Nasdaq index was among the leaders the past week, which also indicates continuation of an ascending trend. Usually, growth of this indicator tells about demain in risky assets, because Nasdaq index includes securities with high P/E ratio. Finally, VIX is now based in the neutral area on the level of 13.96, which also supports stock market. So, this week we should open Buy positions on growth of quotations to the area 2101/2080 and take profit on the point 2135.

Alexander Goryachev

Analyst of «FreshForex» company

Publication source
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