GBP/USD: review and forecast on 25.06.2015

25 June, 2015

Current trend

Yesterday, as the USD was strengthening, the pair GBP/USD declined and reached the level of 1.5684. The dollar grew after the statement by the Fed’s governor Jerome Powell that the first rate increase is expected in as early as September, with the next increase in December.

The GBP still remains under the pressure after the Bank of England member’s board decided to keep interest rates unchanged.

A bunch of news releases is coming out in the US today and the data is expected to be controversial. The number of Initial Jobless Claims is going to grow from 267K to 272K, Personal Income – from 0.4% to 0.5% against the previous month and from 0% to 0.7% against the last year. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price index growth remains unchanged (0.1%). Markit Services PMI is going to increase from 56.2 to 56.5.

Should the forecast match the actual figures, the USD is going to strengthen and the pair GBP/USD would decline.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels are: 1.5802 (yesterday’s high), 1.5929 (18 June high, upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.6000 and 1.6100 (psychologically important levels).

Support levels are: 1.5835 (23.6% Fibonacci correction), 1.5650 (38.2% Fibonacci correction), 1.5565 (50% Fibonacci correction, middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5480 (61.8% Fibonacci correction).

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of 1.5805 with targets at 1.5929, 1.6000 and stop-loss at 1.5790. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.5650 with targets at 1.5565, 1.5480 and stop-loss at 1.5670.


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