Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 June - 3 July 2015

June 29, 2015

First, a review of the forecast for the past week:

- most experts suggested that the EUR/USD pair would hold in the monthly sideways trend and therefore descend to its lowest level around 1.1200 and possibly beyond that to 1.1160, which happened with 100% accuracy;

- taking into consideration the opinion of 55% of the analysts and graphical analysis indications, the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go down to the 1.5740 support level. The forecast was also fulfilled as the pair finished the business week at that level precisely;

- the prediction of the 122.00-124.50 sideways corridor for USD/JPY also ended up being correct. However, it was said that before getting to the upper boundary of the corridor, the pair would descend to just below 122.00 but it didn’t happen. Nonetheless, there was a just minor descent, and on Monday the pair lunged upwards, making it to the 124.40-124.50 resistance level by Wednesday;

- the experts set 0.9390 as a resistance level for USD/CHF. The pair reached this mark already on Tuesday, after which its volatility rapidly diminished and the pair continued to move within a much more modest range of 0.9285-0.9390 for the rest of the week.

Forecast for the upcoming week

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be concluded:

- both the majority of the experts and the indicators foretell a further sideways trend for EUR/USD, with the bears enjoying a certain advantage. Thus, 1.1035 can be considered as a likely strong support level. The upper boundary of the corridor remains at 1.1450, the Pivot Point is 1.1200;

- according to the analysts, the GBP/USD pair will most probably be in a sideways trend too. Unlike the EUR/USD scenario, bullish tendencies will dominate here. Due to this, one can’t rule out either the pair’s rise to the upper boundary of the corridor at 1.5930 or a break through it and an upward movement towards 1.6000;

- the experts and the indicators agree that the bears will also demonstrate their strength in the battle for the future of the USD/JPY pair. A likely Pivot Point is 123.85, last week’s final level, while the pair’s target will be a break through resistance around 124.40 and reaching 125.00;  

- the USD/CHF pair displays an inverse correlation with EUR/USD time and time again, in view of which USD/CHF can be expected to rise to 0.9400 or even further to 0.9450.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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