XAU/USD: gold is declining on 01.07.2015

1 July, 2015

Current trend

On Tuesday, August futures for gold on COMEX fell by 0.6% and the pair closed at 1172.10, 70 points below its opening. From the beginning of Asian session today, the price remains in the narrow range near $1173.60 per Troy ounce.

Important news from the US for today include ADP Employment Change for June (forecast +218 K) at 3:15 pm (all time indicated as GMT +3), Markit Manufacturing PMI for June (forecast 53.4) at 4:45 pm, ISM Prices Paid (forecast 51.0), ISM Manufacturing PMI for June (forecast 53.1), and Construction Spending (forecast 0.5%) at 5:00 pm. Non-farm Payrolls for June are due tomorrow at 3:30 pm. A growth of 230 K against 280 K for May is expected.

Should the actual figures match the forecasts, market expectations of interest rate hike in the US later this year would strengthen.

Support and resistance

As the USD is strengthening on the market, short positions are preferred in the pair XAU/USD.

On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals. On the daily chart, the pair is moving along downward channel (green color) towards year’s low of 1149.50. The pair remains under the strong resistance levels of 1212.00 (EMA200), 1207.50 (38.2% Fibonacci), 1202.00 (EMA144), 1185.25 (23.6% Fibonacci).

Support levels: 1166.00, 1161.00.

Resistance levels: 1180.00, 1185.25, 1202.00, 1207.50.

Trading tips

Open short positions from the current levels and from 1185.25, 1190.00 with stop-loss at 1192.00 and targets at 1170.00, 1166.00, 1161.00, 1149.50.

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1202.00 with targets at 1207.50, 1212.00.


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