XAU/USD: review and forecast on 03.07.2015

July 3, 2015

Current trend

Yesterday, the price of the pair XAU/USD fell to its lowest level in the last 3 months (1161.00) that was determined by investors’ expectations of the strong labor market data from the US.

Nevertheless, the data released was worse than expected. Non-farm Payrolls showed 223 K of new jobs instead of expected 230 K, and Initial Jobless Claims rose from 271 K to 281 K. Only unemployment level figure came out better than expected, having fallen to 5.3%. After the release, gold gained back all the losses incurred earlier and grew to 1166.29.

Today, markets are likely to remain calm, as it is an official holiday in the US. Market participants are waiting for the Sunday referendum in Greece.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1161.00 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1156.52 (yesterday low), 1150.00 (psychologically important level), 1142.59 (17 March low).

Resistance levels: 1169.34 (yesterday high), 1175.35 (38.2% Fibonacci), 1181.00 (50% Fibonacci), 1188.24 (30 June high).

Trading tips

Open long positions above the level of 1200.00 with targets at 1204.00, 1210.00 and stop-loss at 1199.00.

Short positions can be opened below 1194.00 with targets at 1190.20, 1187.00 and stop-loss at 1196.00.

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