6 July, 2015
First, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;
- as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;
- the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;
- USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.
Forecast for the upcoming week. One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round:
- 64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;
- the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;
- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;
- the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.
In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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