Generalized Forex Forecast for 3-7 August 2015

August 3, 2015

First, a review of the past week:

- the forecast for EUR/USD based on graphical analysis turned out to be nearly perfect – a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 and a rise to 1.1115 if the pair broke through resistance. Last week’s chart displays all of that – the sideways trend, the break through resistance and the pair’s rise to 1.1115, with a support level of 1.0900;

- graphical analysis was also correct in regards to GBP/USD. It indicated that the pair would move in an ascending corridor visible on D1. This is precisely what happened – all week long the pair climbed up slowly, sticking to the bottom boundary of the corridor;  

- the analysts and technical analysis were unanimous about USD/JPY – the pair was supposed to continue its effort to reach 125.00. It did try but failed to get over strong resistance at 124.50 once again;

- graphical analysis was close to perfection in its predictions for USD/CHF as well. The D1 scenario included a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target level of 0.9700 and a further crash to support at 0.9325. It all happened, though the crash was less dramatic – to 0.9550.

Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:

- it’s rather difficult to sum up the analysts’ views on EUR/USD but giving it a shot, it can be said that the pair’s Pivot Point will be at 1.0970. The pair will be oscillating around this line in a 1.0820-1.1115 range. The indicators also show neutral behavior for the pair while there’s no clarity with graphical analysis. Hopefully, the start of the week will shed more light on this;

- all of the analysts predict that GBP/USD will be in a sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies and support at 1.5520. A rise is foretold by 74% of the indicators, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. According to it, there may be a slight fall initially, after which the pair will be pushing off support at 1.5510, go up to 1.5830 and return to the support level. However, the return may happen 10-14 August instead of this week;

- as for USD/JPY, only 11% of the experts believe that the pair will finally reach 125.00, with the rest talking about a drop to around 123.00. Graphical analysis proposes the following scenario: first down to 123.40, then a rise to at least 124.40, followed by a sharp fall to a 122.00 support level. Only the technical indicators on H4 and D1 show that the pair will start moving upwards right away on Monday;

- the analysts are quite vague about USD/CHF, unlike the indicators that give a clear and almost unanimous (78%) forecast of a rise to a 0.9730-0.9750 range. Support will be at 0.9510.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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