Forex Forecast for 24-28 August 2015

24 August, 2015

Let’s review the forecast for the previous week:

- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to go down to the 1.1035 support at the start of the week, which happened. The pair fell to the said level 18 August. Next day, after a rebound, the pair rose to the set target of 1.1280 where it stayed most of Friday;

- the forecast for GBP/USD also stood. First, the pair reached 1.5690 and then sharply descended to around 1.5550 (1.5560 to be precise). On Tuesday, the predicted bounce towards the top boundary of the ascending trend (1.5690) took place, and the pair finished the week at that very level;

 - the sideways trend predicted for USD/JPY lasted only for the first half of the week. However, the USA and China supported the bears, and the pair ended up 250 pips below the level of the start of the week;

- there was a similar situation with USD/CHF. On Wednesday, the bears simply derailed the pair, and only an extremely strong support level of 0.9480 was able to stop that dramatic fall. The pair has been trying to break through this level since spring.

Forecast for the coming week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and brokerages as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:

- most analysts believe that once EUR/USD reaches a strong resistance level of 1.1460, it will remain in a sideways trend with support at 1.1150 for some time.  An alternative view suggests that EUR/USD will fall to 1.0840 after the current correction. As for the indicators, H1, H4 and D1 all point exclusively upwards. Even W1 shows a sideways trend as a compromise. Graphical analysis on H1, however, insists on the pair’s decline to at least 1.1290 at the start of the week;

- for the GBP/USD pair, 80% of the experts and 85% of the indicators predict a further up trend with a 1.5800 target at the very least. This forecast is supported by graphical analysis on Н4. The H1 timeframe, however, indicates a continuation of the short-term sideways trend within a 1.5650-1.5715 range at the beginning of the week. In case of a downward breakthrough, the key support should be at 1.5550;

- as for USD/JPY, 78% of the experts agree that the pair’s fall will end around 122.00, followed by a  bounce all the way to resistance at 124.60. Should the pair break through the 122.00 support level, it can easily go down to 120.20. Graphical analysis seems to indicate a very similar scenario – a short-term descent to around 120.40-121.20, followed by a rebound to 124.60;

- regarding USD/CHF, both experts and graphical analysis propose that the pair’s rise will start from 0.9400 and continue to a 0.9700-0.9750 range. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the ascent will begin right away on Monday. As for a longer-term forecast for the coming months, USD/CHF may fall to 0.9100, reverse and reach the 1.0000 hallmark after all.

Roman Butko, NordFX


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