7 September, 2015
Let’s review last week’s predictions:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by at least 95%. As predicted, the pair spent the week revolving around the Pivot Point at 1.1200. In accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair went up at the start of the week and then made a U-turn. However, the pair’s volatility was weaker than assumed;
- pursuant to the forecast, GBP/USD tested the minimum level around 1.5330-1.5350 several times at the beginning of the week. The testing was so successful that, after breaching support and defying the analysts’ expectations, the pair descended even more to the low of 1 June;
- in the forecasts about USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators predicted the bulls to have the upper hand but that turned out to be incorrect. Already by 1 September, the pair reached the first support level, entered into a sideways trend and, having breached support at 119.50, continued downwards at the end of the week;
- as for USD/CHF, the indicators staunchly supporting the pair’s rise were right. So were 50% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1, although the pair’s growth wasn’t as rapid as the latter had predicted.
Forecast for the coming week.
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- most analysts’ expectation for EUR/USD is a sideways trend with the main support around 1.0925. At the same time, 18% of the experts say that this support may be broken through and the pair may fall to 1.0812. The indicators on H5 and D1 confirm the bears’ advantage while graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the pair will be able to maintain its sideways trend with a 1.1140 Pivot Point for some time;
- the indicators on all main timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 show that GBP/USD will fall further to 1.5100. However, considering that the pair is currently at the bottom boundary of a descending corridor, there may be a rebound towards the corridor’s upper boundary of 1.5225-1.5255 first. If it’s broken, the pair could start moving upward and return to around 1.5325;
- it goes without saying that all the indicators foresee a continuing descent for USD/JPY. Graphical analysis, on the contrary, suggests that the pair has already reached a strong enough support level and a rebound to at least 119.80 (forecast on Ð1) or even higher to 120.50 (forecast on Ð4) could follow shortly. The opinions of 83% of the experts add that USD/JPY will be moving along the ascending corridor and rather quickly return to 123.00. The main support level will be around 118.40;
- as for USD/CHF, 74% of the indicators, 100% of the experts and graphical analysis insist on the pair’s rise in its efforts to achieve the 1.0000 landmark in the next few weeks. Such unanimity is definitely a cause for concern, especially taking into account what the pair has done for the past 14 days. The key support this week will be at 0.9680. If it’s broken, the bears will take over once again and the coveted peak will be out of reach for a while.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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