Forex Forecast for 21-25 September 2015

September 21, 2015

First, a review of the previous week:

- there were two possible scenarios for EUR/USD – either a rise to resistance around 1.1450 and a downward bounce or just a fall. In fact, both options played out – at the beginning of the week, the pair started to fall, then it went up to the 1.1450 resistance and, after a rebound, crashed to last Monday’s starting point;

- GBP/USD accurately followed the prediction during the first half of the week – having knocked on resistance around 1.5480, the pair rolled down to its support at 1.5335 and shot upwards.  However, on the news from Europe, the rebound was so powerful that the pair finally broke through the resistance at 1.5480-1.5500, turning it into support and reaching the area it had been in for the second half of the summer;

- as predicted, USD/JPY continued its sideways trend it had entered at the end of August and narrowed both its lower and upper oscillation boundaries by 40 points;

- USD/CHF didn’t meet the experts’ expectation of a rise and actually spent the week in a sideways movement. Although, on Thursday, following the Federal Reserve’s announcements, the pair did drop but resumed its normal course already on Friday.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Generalizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:

- a two-week ascending channel is clearly visible on H4 for EUR/USD. The pair ended up at its bottom boundary 1.1300 last Friday. Rather strong support is located nearby at 1.1280. For this reason, almost all experts and indicators agree that the pair will be approaching the channel’s upper boundary of 1.1450 in the next few days. Further, opinions diverge – 57% of the analysts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H1 suggest that the pair will continue its upward movement to a 1.1500-1.1550 area while the rest 43% of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 predict that the pair will transition into a sideways trend with a 1.1360 Pivot Point;

- most of what’s been written above for EUR/USD can be applied to GBP/USD which is now at the bottom boundary of an ascending corridor and close to strong support at 1.5500. The pair should rebound off this level to the upper boundary at 1.5700. After that, the pair will either break it and hike 100 more points up or transition into a sideways trend;

- both experts and indicators forecast that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend with prevailing bearish tendencies. The Pivot Point will be at 119.80, the first support – at 119.00 and the next support level – at 118.45. Resistance will be at 121.00 and 121.50;

- the majority of the analysts and the indicators agree that USD/CHF will spend this week in a 0.9550-0.9675 corridor where the pair was end of August - beginning of September. Only 18% of the analysts believe that the pair will go up to a 0.9675-0.9775 range.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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