12 October, 2015
First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- as expected, EUR/USD spent the week within the indicated boundaries. The bulls had a distinct advantage and, after two failed attempts on Thursday, they managed to break through the first resistance level of 1.1300 on Friday, repeating the scenario of the first ten days of September;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was fulfilled 100%. As predicted, bouncing off support around 1.5100, the pair went up, broke through the main resistance of 1.5300, spent some time around 1.5360 and Friday evening returned to 1.5300;
- the indicators insisted USD/JPY should continue its sideways trend, which happened. Apparently, the bulls and the bears got so weary of fighting that were able only to continue to draw the symmetrical triangle, which they’ve been busy with for the past 7 weeks;
- the USD/CHF pair was quite unpredictable. First, as suggested, it moved up, then turned the 0.9740 Pivot Point into resistance and entered a sideways trend, finishing the week by falling to support around 0.9590.
Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- regarding EUR/USD, 67% of the analysts agree with the indicators that the pair will reach September’s high of 1.1460. Now the pair is at the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, and there are two possible scenarios – either the given boundary line becomes support and the pair immediately goes up, or the scenario of the first half of September is repeated and the pair rebounds to the lower boundary of the corridor (1.1300-1.1315) before continuing its upward movement. This turn of events is strongly supported by graphical analysis on H1;
- a similar pattern is expected for the GBP/USD pair. About 70% of the analysts and indicators on H4 and D1 insist the pair will rise at least to 1.5450 resistance. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 specifies that at first, the pair may fall to support at 1.5300 (H1) and may even reach the bottom around 1.5250 at the second attempt;
- the seven-week pennant on the USD/JPY chart leaves both analysts and all the tools of technical analysis puzzled. Nonetheless, 33% of the analysts as well as indicators on H4 still have a faint hope that USD/JPY will rise to 121.20 at least. Alternatively, 33% of the analysts expect the pair to fall to around 1.1850, and the remaining third just shrug their shoulders, which doesn’t qualify as a forecast in any way;
- as for USD/CHF, 90% of the analysts believe that the pair will hold in a 0.9540-0.9750 sideways corridor. This forecast is elaborated by graphical analysis on D1 – USD/CHF should first go up to the upper boundary of the corridor, then rebound and drop to 0.9500-0.9570 for 2-3 days before abruptly rising to 0.9900. However, the latter may take place only end of October – early November.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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