19 October, 2015
First, a review of the previous week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD can be considered as fulfilled by 99%. The predictions were as follows: the pair bounces off the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, goes to its bottom boundary and, bouncing back up, reaches September’s high. This actually happened, although the pair didn’t quite reach the very bottom of the channel and slightly overshot the high, so the forecast lost 1% of its accuracy;
- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to first hit the bottom around 1.5250 and then to spike up at least to resistance at 1.5450, which took place. Although in this case, some adjustments were made by inertia – in its fall, GBP/USD made it to 1.5200 but then quickly returned to the indicated support level of 1.5250. The maximum also turned out to be slightly higher at 1.5500 while 1.5450 became the point the pair returned to by the end of the week;
- last week, it seemed impossible to give any forecast regarding USD/JPY as 33% of the experts voted for a rise, 33% for a sideways trend and 33% for a downward movement. The latter proved correct, though the fall was short-term and soon the pair returned to the main support of the past two months;
- the bulls’ timid attempts to push USD/CHF upwards were unsuccessful, and on Thursday, the pair reached the low around 0.9500, as predicted by the experts, and stayed there until the end of the week.
Forecast for the coming week. Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 73% of the analysts along with graphic analysis and indicators on H1 support a further drop – first, to support at 1.1300 and then further to support at 1.1120. The Pivot Point in this case will be at 1.1200. The remaining 27% of the analysts and 85% of the indicators on D1 think that the pair will fail to break through the 1.1300 support and will go up to last week’s high. This scenario is echoed by graphical analysis on H4;
- most experts, graphical analysis and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that GBP/USD will be moving in a 1.5420-1.5500 range for some time. Further forecasts diverge: 23% of the analysts, fully supported by the indicators, insist the pair will rise to around 1.5570-1.5600. Graphical analysis differs – the pair should go down to support at 1.5350;
- according to nearly all the tools of technical analysis and 64% of the experts, the breakthrough by USD/JPY of the bottom side of the symmetrical triangle, which the pair has been drawing since the end of August, was short-lived. They reckon that the previous course will resume – USD/JPY will reach 120.80 at least, and the Pivot Point will be at 120.00 as before. However, there is an opposing view – 36% of the analysts and 76% of the indicators on D1 are confident that from now on, 119.50 will become a powerful resistance level, bouncing off which the pair will move down to support at 118.00;
- there are two possible scenarios for USD/CHF as well. First – the pair will bounce off the upper boundary of the two-week descending channel, reach its bottom boundary 0.9400-0.9420 and rise sharply, breaking through the channel and reaching resistance at 0.9580-0.9600. The indicators, graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and 45% of the experts support this forecast. According to the second scenario, the pair will go upwards as of Monday, breaking through the upper boundary of the channel. This is voted for by 55% of the analysts along with the indicators and graphical analysis on H1. At the same time, one third of the experts believe that the pair will not stop at 0.9600 but will go 100 points higher.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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