16 November, 2015
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- most experts and graphical analysis on H1 tended to believe that EUR/USD would take a breather and move in a sideways channel of 1.0650-1.0850. In fact, as predicted, the pair neither fell below 1.0675 nor rose over 1.0830;
- as for GBP/USD, most experts talked about a bullish trend and the pair’s movement within a 1.4950-1.5220 range. This forecast played out almost precisely – the pair didn’t go below 1.5025 but rose to the upper boundary of the said corridor during the week, ending up at 1.5234;
- graphical analysis on H1 and half of the experts reckoned that USD/JPY might first rise to 123.50-124.00 (it actually went up to 123.60) and then go down sharply. The forecast panned out except for the word “sharply” – the pair was falling all week and slowed down at support around 122.50;
- the analysts were unanimous that USD/CHF had already reached its target for the near future and now would just be oscillating around the 1.0000 landmark. This is exactly what happened – the pair was moving within the sideways corridor of 0.9990-1.0095 all five days.
Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- it appears nearly impossible to provide any sensible forecast regarding EUR/USD for the next 5 days as 46% of the experts believe that the pair will go up, 15% are for a sideways trend and 39% are for a fall. The indicators on H4 differ too – 74% vote for a rise, 22% for a fall and 4% remain neutral. The indicators on D1 are of the opposite opinion – only 9% are for a rise, another 9% are for sideways movement but 82% expect a fall. Considering that daily releases of important economic data for the eurozone, Japan and the USA or speeches by key figures (such as ECB President Mario Draghi) are expected throughout the week, the picture becomes even less clear. Therefore, what can be said is just that EUR/USD has room to both fall (to support at 1.0675 and 1.0455) and rise (with resistance at 1.0835, 1.0900 and 1.1100);
- most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a sideways trend for GBP/USD, with the bears holding some advantage. Thus, initially, the pair may go up a little to 1.5280, then descend to 1.5175 and then even lower to 1.5110. As for a long-term forecast, the experts believe that in the next few weeks the pair will be aiming for a strong support level around 1.4800;
- as for USD/JPY, the readings of graphical analysis are again of the greatest interest. According to its forecast on H4, the pair will first try to break through resistance at 123.00, fail and roll down, hitting the bottom at 120.50, after which it will return to the current level of 122.50. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this prediction, adjusting the main resistance to 123.75 and support to 121.00. The experts set 125.00 and 127.00 as the pair’s targets for the end of the year;
- the analysts expect USD/CHF to continue to oscillate in the range of 0.9900-1.0100. However, 20% of them as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 don’t rule out that soon the pair will try to break into a 1.0120-1.0130 range, from where it will start to assail 1.0210.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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