Forex Forecast for 16-20 November 2015

16 November, 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- most experts and graphical analysis on H1 tended to believe that EUR/USD would take a breather and move in a sideways channel of 1.0650-1.0850. In fact, as predicted, the pair neither fell below 1.0675 nor rose over 1.0830;
- as for GBP/USD, most experts talked about a bullish trend and the pair’s movement within a 1.4950-1.5220 range. This forecast played out almost precisely – the pair didn’t go below 1.5025 but rose to the upper boundary of the said corridor during the week, ending up at 1.5234;
- graphical analysis on H1 and half of the experts reckoned that USD/JPY might first rise to 123.50-124.00 (it actually went up to 123.60) and then go down sharply. The forecast panned out except for the word “sharply” – the pair was falling all week and slowed down at support around 122.50;
- the analysts were unanimous that USD/CHF had already reached its target for the near future and now would just be oscillating around the 1.0000 landmark. This is exactly what happened – the pair was moving within the sideways corridor of 0.9990-1.0095 all five days.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- it appears nearly impossible to provide any sensible forecast regarding EUR/USD for the next 5 days as 46% of the experts believe that the pair will go up, 15% are for a sideways trend and 39% are for a fall. The indicators on H4 differ too – 74% vote for a rise, 22% for a fall and 4% remain neutral. The indicators on D1 are of the opposite opinion – only 9% are for a rise, another 9% are for sideways movement but 82% expect a fall. Considering that daily releases of important economic data for the eurozone, Japan and the USA or speeches by key figures (such as ECB President Mario Draghi) are expected throughout the week, the picture becomes even less clear. Therefore, what can be said is just that EUR/USD has room to both fall (to support at 1.0675 and 1.0455) and rise (with resistance at 1.0835, 1.0900 and 1.1100);
- most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a sideways trend for GBP/USD, with the bears holding some advantage. Thus, initially, the pair may go up a little to 1.5280, then descend to 1.5175 and then even lower to 1.5110. As for a long-term forecast, the experts believe that in the next few weeks the pair will be aiming for a strong support level around 1.4800;
- as for USD/JPY, the readings of graphical analysis are again of the greatest interest. According to its forecast on H4, the pair will first try to break through resistance at 123.00, fail and roll down, hitting the bottom at 120.50, after which it will return to the current level of 122.50. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this prediction, adjusting the main resistance to 123.75 and support to 121.00. The experts set 125.00 and 127.00 as the pair’s targets for the end of the year;
- the analysts expect USD/CHF to continue to oscillate in the range of 0.9900-1.0100. However, 20% of them as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 don’t rule out that soon the pair will try to break into a 1.0120-1.0130 range, from where it will start to assail 1.0210.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Source link  
Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August - 02 September 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled: all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week...

Generalized Forex Forecast for 22 - 26 August 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points up to the level of 1.1330...

Generalized Forex Forecast for 15 - 19 August 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through - it would go up to 1.1170...


Generalized Forex Forecast for 08 - 12 August 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast: as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south...

Generalized Forex Forecast for 01 - 05 August 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast:as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000...

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 - 29 July 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast: as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970 - 1.1180...


Generalized Forex Forecast for 18 - 22 July 2016

As to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled - the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down...

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 - 15 July 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast: as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled...

Generalized Forex Forecast for 04 - 08 July 2016

First, a review of last week's forecast: – as to EUR/USD, those 20% of analysts, suggesting the gradual rise of the pair, alike the rise of USD/CHF after the ˜Black Thursday...

  


Share: