23 November, 2015
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- it appeared impossible to give a sensible forecast for EUR/USD last week as both experts and indicators were at a complete loss, pointing in different directions. However, exactly this kind of “forecast” turned out right – first, the pair fell a bit, then went up some, then dropped again, finishing the week without any clarity;
- the vast majority of the experts and graphical analysis predicted a sideways trend for GBP/USD, which happened. At first, the pair slowly went down to 1.5155, then went up to its level of one month ago and then fell again to the first support set by the experts – 1.5185;
- graphical analysis proved to be right about USD/JPY – first, the pair was supposed to go up to 123.00-123.75, fail to break through resistance and roll down, returning to 122.50 by the end of the week. In fact, the pair failed to break through resistance around 123.60 twice, after which it bounced down and ended up at 122.80;
- the USD/CHF pair was ahead of schedule. It was expected to stay in the range of 0.9900-1.0100 for some time, then get fixed around 1.0120-1.0130 and only from there start assailing 1.0210. All this transpired but much quicker: already on Tuesday, USD/CHF broke through resistance not only at 1.0100 but also 1.0130, and by Wednesday, it reached the set peak of 1.0210, after which the pair entered a sideways trend.
Forecast for the upcoming week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- all indicators point downward for EUR/USD. However, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 shows that the pair will bounce off support at 1.0628, go up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. At the same time, about half of the experts believe that the initial rebound can be 100 points higher – to 1.0800, while the weekly bottom will be in the area of 1.0500-1.0520;
- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 insists on GBP/USD’s upward rebound to 1.5250, then the pair should oscillate in a 1.5170-1.5250 corridor and drop to support at 1.5085. The next support level is 1.5025. On hitting the bottom, the pair is likely to return to around 1.5300, which is echoed by 65% of the analysts;
- as for USD/JPY, the indicators on H4 point strictly down while on D1 – strictly up. The experts hold a similar view. A summary of their opinions shows quite a wide sideways channel with a 121.85-123.20 range and the pivot point around 122.80. It should be noted that graphical analysis on H1 and H4 indicates that at the start of the week, the pair will go down and only then begin to rise;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially and then a surge to a new peak. The target is 1.0250. At the same time, the analysts believe that the pair will remain in a 1.0200-1.0220 corridor most of the time whereas just one (!) analyst suggests that the pair may fall to 0.9800.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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