Forex Forecast for 30 November - 4 December 2015

30 November, 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off support at 1.0628, move up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. The pair actually went up reaching 1.0690 on Wednesday, after which it dropped, as predicted;

- graphical analysis turned out to be only 50% right about GBP/USD. According to its forecast, the pair was supposed to rebound upwards first, then drop to support at 1.5085 and further to around 1.5025. In fact, starting from Monday, the pair began to fall and reached the set bottom by Friday, ending up at 1.5030;

- last week, the experts and the indicators differed regarding USD/JPY. Nonetheless, the summary of their opinions proved quite efficient – resistance was at 123.20, and the pair was moving along the 122.80 pivot point during the week, finishing exactly at the set level;

- the forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be correct essentially – a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially (the pair made it 1.0144) and then a surge to the new target of 1.0250. All that happened as the pair reached 1.0250 on Wednesday and stayed there till mid-Friday when it shot up by another 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:

- regarding EUR/USD, 65% of the experts, all indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict a fall to the low of March 2015, that is to 1.0450-1.0500, after which the pair should fight its way to resistance at 1.0620;

- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost unanimously suggest that GBP/USD should fall to the rates of last March. The nearest support is set at 1.5000, with the next at 1.4890;

- opinions diverge about USD/JPY – 70% of the experts, backed by the indicators, insist on the pair’s transition to 123.00-124.00 whereas graphical analysis on H4 dissents expressly. It, in turn, shows that USD/JPY should first go down to support at 121.50 and then return to last week’s pivot point 122.80. The indicators on D1 also vote for the continuation of the sideways trend;

- the USD/CHF pair is rapidly approaching its values of 2007-2009, and now a fuller picture can be seen only on W1 or larger timeframes. As for the weekly forecast, all experts, all indicators along with graphical analysis on H4 speak about the pair’s aspiration to reach 1.0400 first and then 1.0500. Such unanimity may seem a bit fishy, and a look at the one-year-old chart would only cause more concern. Throughout last autumn, USD/CHF was also rising actively but then Black Thursday occurred 15 January. It’s unlikely to happen again in the coming days, nevertheless graphical analysis on D1 reminds that during the week the pair may well fall to 0.9850 and only then return to around 1.0300.

Roman Butko, NordFX


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