First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- graphical analysis warned that EUR/USD would first try to break through resistance around 1.0900 and go down after a couple of unsuccessful attempts. The chart shows that there were three such attempts actually, and one of them appeared to almost reach the target. However, all the efforts ended up futile, and the pair saw Christmas at 1.0950 resistance;
- the analysts were right saying that GBP/USD would enter a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point and bearish sentiment at the beginning of the week. The forecast panned out – a brief clash between the bears and the bulls around the pivot point was decisively won by the former, and the pair crashed by 100 points. However, it quickly returned to the pivot point and rose even higher – to the top boundary of the said corridor;
- the forecast for USD/JPY proved correct. As expected, the bears won in this case. The pair couldn’t even break through the first resistance at 121.70 and went down to the bottom boundary of the corridor at 120.30 where it stayed until market closure;
- the USD/CHF pair gave the impression that Swiss bankers closed down for the holidays – the pair went neither up nor down but remained at the pivot point of the past 3 weeks, i.e. 0.9900.
Forecast for the Coming Week
It has to be noted that all analysts are off for the holidays, and thus forecasts will be based on graphical and technical analysis for the time being:
- as for EUR/USD, all indicators on H4 and 72% of them on D1 point strictly upward. The remaining indicators and graphical analysis, supported by the bears, persistently push the pair down. The end of the week will show which scenario is right. However, the pair is quite likely to stay within 1.0800-1.1000 till the end of 2015;
- graphical analysis and 50% of the indicators on H4 as well as 17% of the indicators on D1 point to GBP/USD’s rise to resistance at 1.5040. The rest of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claim that the pair will go down to support at 1.4740 with strong resistance at 1.4930. As the week starts precisely from this level, it should be clearer on Monday which of the trends will prevail in the coming days;
- all indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 indicates that the pair will try to recover last week’s losses – first, it will return to resistance at 121.15, then rebound to support at 120.25 and again go up to 121.45;
- according to graphical analysis, 0.9850 will become support for USD/CHF. The pair will move up from there – first to 1.0000 and then to its main target of 1.0100, turning 1.0000 into support. The indicators differ here, though – all of them on H4 and 67% on D1 vote for USD/CHF’s fall. If the pair drops below the support level of 0.9850, it will hit the bottom around 0.9800 very quickly.
Roman Butko, NordFX