Forex Forecast for 4-8 January 2016

January 4, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- despite the differences between the indicators and graphical analysis, it was suggested that EUR/USD would hold out in the range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 until the very end of 2015. The forecast panned out as the pair rose to 1.0990 on Monday and dropped to 1.0850 on 31 December 2015;  

- there were differing opinions about GBP/USD as well. With that, 50% of the indicators on H4 and 83% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claimed that 1.4930 would be too strong of resistance and the pair would go down to support at 1.4740. This forecast also proved 100% correct – GBP/USD went down at once and saw in the new year at 1.4733;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was multiple fluctuations in the range of 120.25-121.45. It did transpire, although the oscillations were not as large as expected – the pair bounced off the said support range a few times but never managed to get over 120.65;

- graphical analysis indicated that 0.9850 would become support for USD/CHF and the pair would move up from there to the landmark of 1.0000, which worked out 100%.

For a second week in a row, only technical and graphical analysis has been used for the forecasts as all leading analysts are still on holidays. However, the review above shows that one may do without their advice just as well – the precision of the forecasts only improves :)

Forecast for the upcoming week:

- as for EUR/USD, 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on the daily interval confidently show that the pair will continue to fall to support at 1.0515 or somewhat further to the March low of 1.0450. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 warns that before starting the fall, the pair can briefly rise to resistance at 1.0900;

- graphical analysis on all timeframes indicates that early in the week GBP/USD should rise to 1.4800 and then by another 100-150 points. After this, the pair will move downward to last April’s low of 1.4555. However, this fall is not expected until mid-January;

- for USD/JPY, both indicators and graphical analysis on H4 imply some advantage for the bears. According to their readings, the pair will continue to move down but insignificantly – to support at 119.70. The main resistance will be 120.40;

- all indicators point upwards for USD/CHF. Graphical analysis predicts the pair will rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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