CAD may regain ground vs. rest of commodity bloc

January 8, 2016

Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that they expects a 10k increase in Canadian employment in December following November’s downside surprise, while the unemployment rate should hold steady at 7.1%.

Key Quotes

“The trend in jobs has been subdued but steady and we don’t expect any major signals for the BoC from the data. Governor Poloz said the BoC has both conventional and unconventional tools at its disposal but did not signal any urgency to move. There are probably good reasons for the BoC to stay on hold for now including a much weaker CAD offsetting the negative economic impact of lower oil prices, prospects for increased Canadian fiscal spending this year and nascent Fed tightening. Given that market positioning is very short CAD we have positioned for some intra commodity bloc outperformance in the CAD via a short AUDCAD trade recommendation on Thursday.”

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