USD/TRY: moderate growth continues

January 21, 2016

Current trend

On Wednesday, the USD/TRY pair continued its moderate growth, reaching its new high since the end of September. The US Dollar has managed to hold its positions even after the publication of unexpectedly poor statistics on consumer inflation.

Balance in the pair was supported by the price of oil which was falling below $28 per barrel during yesterday. It should be noted that amid recent events in the global economy and uncertainty over further monetary policy of the Fed, ECB and some other central banks, market participants tend to shift their funds into safe-haven currencies.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing while the price range is narrowing down. MACD is declining and keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is trying to move down.

It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 3.0268, 3.0050 (13 January low), 2.9837 (8 January low), 2.9573, 2.9295, 2.9000.

Resistance levels: 3.0476, 3.0604 (20 January high), 3.0678 (29 September high), 3.0742 (24 September high), 3.0840.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 3.0560 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 3.0740, 3.0840 and stop-loss at 3.0270. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebounds down at the level of 3.0476 and declines below 3.0365 with targets at 3.0300, 3.0050 and stop-loss at 3.0450. Validity – 2-3 days.

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