Forex Forecast for 4-8 April 2016

April 4, 2016

Overview of last week’s predictions:

- in the previous forecast, 55% of the experts insisted that EUR/USD should rise and transition into 1.1340-1.1470, and they were right. On Friday, the pair went up to 1.1438, bounced down to support at 1.1335 and stopped almost in the middle of this range – at 1.1392;

- all of March GBP/USD performed large-scale fluctuations, which perplexed many analysts. Last week, the pair acted in a similar way – first, it rose by 340 points and then dropped by 290 points;

- technical analysis on H4 pointed to USD/JPY moving within a 112.30-113.50 range while D1 showed a wider range of 110.70-114.00 with gradual consolidation around support. The pair completed the week right in-between – it bounced off resistance at 113.80, moved down and stopped at 111.60; 

- USD/CHF moved in an unexpected manner. Instead of a rise, it broke through support at 0.9650 and fell by another 60 points, ending the week at 0.9587.

Upcoming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- according to 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, the EUR/USD pair is predicted to rise at least to 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts and graphical analysis reckon that the pair can aim even higher at 1.1700, with strong support of 1.1400. Conversely, the remaining 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 consider 1.1400 as strong resistance from which the pair should drop sharply to support at 1.1165. The beginning of the week will make it clear which scenario will play out;  

- the indicators and graphical analysis predict a fall for GBP/USD. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this while the rest of them are on the other side of the fence. Nonetheless, all of them believe that the amplitude of the pair's fluctuations will remain within the boundaries of past three weeks. In the longer term, technical analysis and more than half of the experts still expect the pair to fall to last February’s lows around 1.3850;

- the forecast of graphical analysis on D1 for USD/JPY stays unchanged – first, fluctuations within the 110.70-114.00 range with gradual consolidation near support and then a sharp bounce from the lower boundary up to 117.00. This is supported by 100% of the indicators and 65% of the experts who also warn that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April or early May;

- about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that USD/CHF hasn’t completed its fall yet and the bottom is last October’s lows around ​​1.9485. The remaining 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 are sure that it's time for the pair to go up – first to 0.9740 and then further to resistance at 0.9880. Support is 0.9570.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Publication source
NordFX information  NordFX reviews

December 2, 2016
Oil may remain above $50
The Oil price continued to push higher today reaching its highest level in over a year with some predicting that the OPEC deal reached yesterday was a game changer and further gains are expected...
November 29, 2016
Euro may hit parity with US dollar
The Euro was under further pressure today against the US dollar on the back of political instability in Italy and, bringing it closer to parity with its American counterpart...
November 28, 2016
ECB speeches, OPEC rumours to dominate Monday
The US is back to the markets in full swing today as investors return from the long weekend and while this may have a major impact on the markets (given the fact that US bonds and US dollar had such a massive influence on global markets recently) other factors dominate in the calendar with the US being present...

 FXTM Rating
Trade360 Rating
FOREX.com Rating
FBS Rating
FxPro Rating
Tickmill Rating

Anyoption Rating
IQ Option Rating
EZTrader Rating
OptionRally Rating
Empire Option Rating
Grand Option Rating