16 May, 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
-if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, as it often happens, graphical analysis turned out to be the most accurate, having predicted the return of the pair to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280. It was that value - 1.1282 - that the pair reached on Friday and, after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, it completed the five-day period in the 1.1310 area;
-with regard to GBP/USD, having returned to the key support/resistance zone for the entire 2016, near 1.4400 - 1.4500, the pair fluctuated around Pivot Point 1.4440 for nearly the whole week. However, at the end of the week, it remembered that most analysts and all the tools of technical analysis had unanimously voted for continuation of its fall. As a result, denoting a bearish trend, the pair moved to the south and recorded the weekly low at 1.4340;
-forecast for USD/JPY turned out to be only partly true. It had been assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair should go up to the 108.00 resistance and it obediently did so. But then, instead of showing a rebound down, the pair broke this level and moved sideways in the 108.25 - 109.40 channel;
-redicting the behaviour of USD/CHF, the majority of experts together with technical and graphical analysis continued to insist on a quest of the pair to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair indeed made several desperate attempts to achieve this significant level, however, the maximum result, which it managed to achieve for the whole week, was the height of 0.9774, located just 26 points below the coveted height.
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
-throughout May experts have not managed to form any consensus on the future of EUR/USD. The same thing happened this time: 45% of them with the support of 100% of indicators on H4 vote for pair falling to the level of 1.1200, 20% of analysts - for the sideways trend, and 35% - for the pair's growth to the height of 1.1380. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with the latter, its readings say that the pair must demonstrate a smooth rebound from the 1.1280 support. If we talk about a long-term forecast, the opinion of the majority of experts (70%) remains the same - reduction of pair to the zone 1.1000 - 1.1100;
-but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the outlook remains virtually the same as last week - a continuation of the pair's fall to the area 1.4250 - 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound to the 1.4500 resistance. With this agree both 65% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1;
-USD/JPY - here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair's movement in the sideways channel 107.00 - 109.50 in the next few days. At this, the pair, with high probability, will demonstrate a bearish mood, which will result in an attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down to the lows of early May - in the area of 105.50 - 106.00;
-as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - 60% of the experts, 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 and 65% of indicators continue to insist that the pair should reach the level of 0.9800. At this graphical analysis on D1 warns that after a few days in this area, a strong rebound to the south may follow, as a result of which, as it happened in March and April, the pair will drop to the 2016 lower boundary of the sideways channel - to the zone 0.9500 - 0.9585. The nearest support is at the level of 0.9650.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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