Splitting US jobs data

8 July, 2016

The US employment report will be crucial in setting the market tone ahead. With expectations for a move this year only around 10%, it’s a tall order to put it back on the table, especially with the more uncertain global backdrop created by the UK’s vote for Brexit. The market looks for a rise of 180k on headline payrolls from the 38k increase see previously. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 4.8% from 4.7% previously. The Fed has made it pretty clear that the rate outlook is data dependent, but it’s hard to see the jobs market recovering enough to put a rate hike back on the table. The question will be, post data, do the two months combined show a slowing job market, i.e. beyond the inevitably noise in the monthly releases.

Trading ahead of the numbers likely to be fairly constrained. Many of the major pairs are in consolidative territory at the moment, sterling up from the lows seen mid-week, the Aussie the same, CAD in a wedge pattern, the euro seeing tightening ranges above the 1.10 level on EURUSD. Gold is a different story, with the push above the 1350 level holding in place for the time being. Bonds also continue to make new cyclical lows in many markets on a nearly daily basis. We continue to live in extraordinary times.


Source link  
New US data did not add positive

Published data on construction activity in the US in August slightly exceeded expectations. The number of building permits reached...

Interest Rates in Focus

On Monday, at a speech at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that any increases in UK interest rates in the future will be both...

US Data Fails to Impress

On Friday, the US Commerce Department released Retail Sales showing a drop of 0.2% in August, the biggest decline in 6 months. The markets had expected...


A Stronger Picture for the UK?

North Korea fired another missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean on Friday. The regimes defiance towards recent UN sanctions has had a mooted effect...

Risk-On Sentiment Improves

A degree of risk-on sentiment returned to the markets on Monday and in early Tuesday trading. The economic impact of Hurricane Irma, now...

Harvey Impacts US Unemployment

The US Department of Labor released Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 1) on Thursday that showed the impact Hurricane Harvey has had on US unemployment...


Harvey To Impact US Economic Growth?

Tropical Storm Harvey caused extensive flooding along the US Gulf coast over the weekend and markets are evaluating the damage caused to US oil...

Markets Look to OPEC

As OPEC began its 2-day meeting in Abu Dhabi on Monday, to align its members to adherence to output reductions, data from S P Platts revealed that Libya and Nigeria pushed OPEC crude...

BoE Lowers UK Growth Forecast

The Bank of England kept rates at their record low on Thursday, following their latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting. However, the BoE cut forecasts...

  


Share: