The euro snapback

October 5, 2016

The single currency has been most notable for the ever tighter trading ranges that have been in evidence in recent weeks. There was a slight wobble to that yesterday as the single currency gained on a story suggesting that the ECB would consider ‘tapering’ bond purchases ahead at some point next year. Officially the program is set to end March 2017, although the ECB President has said that it could continue beyond that. This is one of those stories based on ‘sources’, so some may take it with a pinch of salt. But beneath the surface is probably an underlying concern that the ECB needs to be very cognisant of the impact of bond purchases and the increased ownership that the ECB is taking on. Some, especially Germany, are increasingly uncomfortable with that.

Elsewhere, the sterling headline writers had their day yesterday as sterling hit mid 1980s lows after a new leg lower was initiated in the wake of the weekend announcement of a deadline to the triggering of article 50. This has brought forth bearing calls once again for the year end, as the Brexit debate takes over from the economic data as the main driver of the currency. Over the past week though, EURJPY has been pretty steady as the Japanese currency has pulled back from the 100 level on USDJPY. For today, there is some more US data to offer distraction ahead of the US jobs numbers on Friday. The dollar continues to see creeping strength on the basis of a December rate increase.

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