Calmer for now

17 November, 2016

I wrote yesterday about markets generally losing their narrative in the wake of last week’s US Presidential election; not quite sure what to trade off and what to believe. That remains the case, although it is noticeable that things were calmer in the Asian session today, equities a bit more accepting of the fact that no-one has a proper clue what the future holds for the US next year. The main exception was Australia, where the latest jobs numbers were released. The headline employment number held steady at 5.6%, although the headline employment gain of 9.8k failed to reversed the revised 29k fall seen in the prior month. So something of a mixed picture and there remain concerns with the level of part-time jobs being created vs. full-time. The Aussie was marginally softer on the release. Elsewhere, we’ve seen little change in the main Asian indices, whilst the dollar has halted the recent rise, especially against the yen, as Fed speaker have given a more cautious read on the outlook.

The main focus today will be FOMC chair Yellen’s testimony to the economic committee on the economy. Text is released 13:00 GMT with testimony following at 15:00 GMT. This will probably not be the most comfortable appearance for her, given it’s likely to be highly politicised after the election result, but also difficult from an economic outlook, with so much uncertainty prevailing, especially around fiscal policy. As such, the dollar could be volatile and also vulnerable, should Yellen serve to undermine the view in the markets that more spending will push up both bond yields and also short-term interest rates. This should be an interesting afternoon session.


Source link  
Oil Gains and GBP Stumbles

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks in the United States fell by 7.4 million barrels last week. That is almost twice...

Geo-Politics will be the focus of the week

This week will be dominated by Geo-Politics as the US Tax Bill needs to be reconciled between the Senate and House, whilst UK Prime Minister...

Positive Economic Data for Euro and UK

Data released on Thursday from Markit Economics showed eurozone’s thriving economy powered ahead in November, with new manufacturing orders...


UK Growth Forecast Lowered

UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond delivered an Autumn Budget that appeared to be somewhat neutral in its content. More sobering was the updated forecast...

Eurozone economy is robust but...

Speaking at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, ECB President Mario Draghi, commented that although the eurozone economy was robust...

Trump: Jobs, jobs, jobs!

Data released on Friday showed US job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month, but a sharp retreat in average earnings and an increase...


UK Interest Rates in Focus

The Bank of England is widely expected to raise UK interest rates for the first time in 10 years today. An expected 0.25% rise, to 0.5%, will push...

Strong US Q3 GDP Boosts USD

The US Commerce Department released Q3 GDP data on Friday, showing the US economy expanded at an annual pace of 3%. With the back-to-back...

So, Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair?

The markets are turning their attention to who will become the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve. President Trump recently commented that...

  


Share: