Eyes on US Retail Sales

12 May, 2017

Friday May 12th will see the release of a set of crucial US data for April at 13:30 BST; retail sales, retail sales excluding autos, CPI and core CPI. Please be aware that it will likely affect USD and USD crosses along with commodities.

The dollar index has rebounded over the past four trading sessions after hitting a 6-month low of 98.40 on May 5. Gold prices saw a rebound on Thursday, and spot gold has now touched a four-day high of $1229.58 on Friday during early European session.

US retail sales (MoM) saw a downtrend over the past three months mainly caused by the decline in auto and petroleum sales. The consensus for the April figure is an optimistic forecast of 0.6%. However, sales in April for the three automobile tycoons, Ford, Chrysler and GM, saw a further falling of 7.1%, 7% and 5.8% respectively. The declines will likely weigh on the upcoming data. US retail sales outlook seems to be a bit gloomy before auto sales see a recovery.

Retail sales excluding autos (MoM) also saw a downtrend over the past three months with the reading for March, surprisingly, was a zero growth, not seen since August 2016.

US CPI (YoY) has seen a healthy upswing since May 2015; staying above the Fed’s 2% target since December 2016. Core CPI (YoY) has been oscillating steadily in the range between 2.1% – 2.3% since January 2016.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) announced that; interest rates remain unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchase programme also remains unchanged at £435 billion which are both in line with market expectations. The BoE sees inflation to be above their 2% target for the next three years due to weak GBP. Consumption will continue to experience a slowdown; however, this will be balanced by rising trade and investment. Wage growth is expected to be quicker in 2018.

The BoE forecasts interest rates are likely to remain at the current level until late 2019. However, monetary policy may need to be tightened more than the markets expect over the next three years. The BoE also predicts the Brexit process to be smooth.

The BoE holds a positive outlook on inflation and economy. However, with regards to monetary policy, it is not very likely for the BoE to undertake a large-scale tightening until the Brexit negotiation deal has a clear outline. In addition, the BoE seems to be overly optimistic about the Brexit negotiation process. The EU is unlikely to make the process easy for the UK, to avoid encouraging other member states leaving following Brexit.

GBP/USD fell from 1.2940 after the UK data was released, holding above the significant support line at 1.2900. This support level was breached following the BoE announcement with GBP/USD hitting a 1-week low of 1.2848.


Source link  
Stocks Fall Amid China Worries

European stocks slid, following a retreat in Asia, amid growing concerns about a slowdown in China and policy makers steps to address it. The dollar advanced...

Why $70 is so Important for Brent

October was a brutal month not only for the U.S. IT-Companies. Crude oil prices also had significant and important shifts. After renewing the 4-year highs...

Is the 'extreme fear' over now?

Chinese equities are developing a rebound on Friday, supported by the hopes for progress in China and the US trade negotiations. The telephone...


Dollar is waiting for what Powell says

The U.S. dollar has returned to growth on the comments from the Fed officials about the need of further rates increases this year and next one. At the end...

Toxic lira can push euro to $1.04

The collapse of the Turkish lira spreads its toxic influence on the European and EM financial markets. Asian bourses have been losing more than 1% at Monday...

Dollar consolidates expecting rally

Financial markets rise on positive sentiments about earnings and China's fiscal stimulus. That pushed down the demand for USD, but more likely it is just...


USD defense will be short-lived

The dollar index reached the one-year highs on Wednesday due to the demand for safe assets. USDX reached level 95.43 on Thursday, breaking the peak levels...

FOMC expect to reach neutral policy

The FOMC minutes highlighted some increased risks to the US economy particularly concerning trade relationships but the view still holds that the Fed should...

US FOMC expected to raise rates again

UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May) is expected out at 2.5% against 2.4% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) (May) is expected...

  


Share: