USD Rises as Investor Concerns Abated

20 June, 2017

Investor concerns, that low US inflation could deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further this year, were somewhat abated last night after New York Fed President William Dudley stated “that the tightening in the labour market should help drive up inflation”. Dudley’s comments reinforced last weeks Fed message and helped to give a boost to USD.

In early Asian trading USDJPY rose to 111.783 reaching its strongest level since May 26th which is nearly 2.8% above the 2 month low set on June 14th of 108.81. Currently USDJPY is trading at 111.60. Technical Analysis indicates key resistance levels just above 112.10 which may tempt market bulls to test. Additional gains for USD against JPY may also arise following the comments made last week by the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda; “the BOJ would be in no hurry to dial back its massive stimulus program”

USD strength saw the Dollar Index September Future trading as high as 97.29 in early trading – it’s highest level since May 30th – currently trading at 97.25 for the September Future.

Domestic politics and the UK’s economic future (the Brexit negotiations began yesterday) have caused downward pressure on GBP. After reaching a high on Monday of 1.2814 GBPUSD is trading below 1.2690 this morning. There may be some hope for GBPUSD to recover with speeches expected today form Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and British finance minister Philip Hammond.

Oil continues to be under selling pressure as there is clear evidence that crude oil production is rising in the US, Nigeria & Libya. These increases are undermining the efforts of OPEC to curb production. Add to that a 22nd consecutive month of increases in new US Oil rigs and it becomes less of a surprise to see WTI trading below $44.70 and Brent trading below $47.35 a barrel in early trading this morning – both close to 5 month lows.

As global risk sentiment has improved Gold has lost some of its shine hitting a 1 month low of $1,242.75 before retracing higher to currently trade close to $1,247.


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