Markets look ahead to US data

23 June, 2017

Trading in USD was relatively flat on Friday ahead of economic indicators released next week in the US, which will provide further insight into the US economy – specifically inflation. Following last week’s FOMC decision to raise interest rates, the USD Index hit a 1 month high on Tuesday of 98.871. Since then trading has been in a narrow range as the markets await new US data to “analyse”. With US inflation data released next week the markets will be keen to see if the recent slump in crude oil has impacted the US inflation outlook.

US data releases next week will include; June consumer confidence indicator, pending home sales, crude oil inventories, revised first quarter GDP and the PCE price index. However, USD will likely react to wages & inflation data and moreso the July Non-Farm Payroll report in 2 weeks’ time. USD is set to post weekly gains of 0.4% against both USDJPY & EURUSD. USDJPY is trading around 111.25 below the 1 month high it set on Tuesday of 111.79. EURUSD is holding relatively steady around 1.1181.

Oil made small recoveries yesterday from 10 month lows, with WTI trading around $42.95 and Brent trading around $45.55 in early trading this morning. Therefore Commodity Currencies have benefited with USDCAD rallying 0.75% on Thursday and currently trading around 1.3220. CAD also benefitted from strong domestic retail sales which added to the markets expectations for an interest rate hike in July from the Bank of Canada.

GBPUSD was higher trading around 1.2735 as Kristin Forbes, Bank of England Policy Maker, stated “a “lift off” of UK interest rates should not be delayed any longer”. Such a statement is contrarian to comment made by Bank of England Governor Carney. This week GBPUSD experienced a sell off from Monday’s high of 1.2814 to a 2-month low set on Wednesday of 1.2589. Markets will be keen to hear the tone of speeches from FOMC members; Bullard, Mester and Powell today at 16:15 BST, 17:40 BST and 19:15 BST respectively.


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