Analysts from Danske Bank, expect the labour market report for December to be strong, due partly to some catch-up effects from previous months while they will look into the FOMC minutes for clues as to whether other members other than Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari came close to dissenting.
“In the US, the coming week brings no market movers. The week after New Year’s Eve, however, brings several interesting releases.”
“On Wednesday, ISM manufacturing for December and FOMC minutes from the December FOMC meeting are due for release. As the statement from the meeting was broadly unchanged, we also expect the minutes to reveal no significant news, but we look out for clues as to whether other than Evans and Kashkari were close to dissenting.”
“The gap between ISM and manufacturing has started narrowing and we expect this to continue. We estimate ISM fell slightly to 57.7 in December. Friday brings the labour market report for December.”
“We expect a relatively strong labour market report (compared to previous months’ reports), due partly to some catch-up effects from previous months. Although trend jobs growth has fallen to around 175,000, PMIs point to jobs growth above 200,000. We estimate non-farm payrolls increased 185,000 with the service sector as the main contributor. Furthermore, we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3% m/m (2.5% y/y versus 2.5% y/y in November) and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.1%.”