CAD surges further on weaker USD

11 April, 2018

It was all downhill today for the USDCAD as the USD weakness continued to be a major factor. This comes as China looks to work together with the US in order to help deal with intellectual property rights and bring about the end of the trade war. However, it seems that the USD is currently not in favour with traders and they're pushing it lower every chance they get, and no more so than against the CAD which is currently one of the strongest currencies out there. One thing that is worrisome, and on the horizon, is of course the US CPI reading which if strong could potentially lead to a bounce in the USDCAD as it does show signs of being oversold at present. In the long run though the USDCAD does seem like it could potentially run away further on the back of the head and shoulders pattern which has given the bears so much more hunger as of late.

For the USDCAD bears the bottom is looking all the more possible and I am expecting to see some sort of push to support at 1.2548 on the chart. A bounce here not be a surprise as it's oversold at present and probably some traders will look to take profit. However, if we see sustained momentum and we have so far - with the 200 day moving average being swept aside - then I would expect further extensions to potentially 1.2406. In the event the bounce leads to a push back higher the neck line around 1.2807 is likely to be some hard work for the bulls to even crack through, as I would expect the vast majority of traders to defend this heavily.

Oil has been one of the surprise movers in recent times as it rebounded sharply up the charts recently. This should not come as a surprise as the USD has been weaker over the last few days. The question now remains can it sustain a push to resistance at 66.05, as the majority of traders believe that at present 60-70 is the current market range we should expect in the near future. Beyond this level is something we've not seen since 2014. I would anticipate that any moves higher may be met with some bearish resistance but it's hard to tell just yet as oil has not been above this level for some time.

On the charts in the long run momentum has always been bullish with a strong long term trend line. And the bulls today certainly showed they were keen to continue momentum with that push to resistance at 66.05. I would be surprised to see it breakthrough and I expect markets will look for a bounce here, especially if the USD does strengthen. If we do see that bounce then expect the bears to pull it back to 64.57, which will be the next level of support as the market falls. If we do however see a breakthrough then I would need to see a close above the resistance level to keep bullish momentum going.


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