BOE Expected to Keep Rates at 0.5%

10 May, 2018

At 08:30 GMT, UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be 3.1% against a previous 2.2%. Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 0.2% against 0.1% previously. Last month this data missed expectations. The reading today is expected to come in higher than last month. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be 2.9% against 2.5% previously. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at -0.2%. This figure had been less volatile during much of 2017, with readings staying positive but close to zero. The miss last month follows on from the previous month’s marginal miss and drags data below the zero line. GBP pairs could move because of this data release.

At 11:00 GMT, Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is expected to be left unchanged at 0.5%. The BOE Minutes, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and the Monetary Policy Statement will be released at the same time. BOE Asset Purchase Facility is expected to come in unchanged at £435B. While no change in rate is expected, the tone and language used will be examined for hints that the Bank is gearing up to increase rates in future. BOE Governor Mark Carney will lead the Press Conference at 11:30 GMT. GBP crosses could see spikes in volatility during this event.

At 12:30 GMT, US Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 27) is expected to be 1.778M against 1.756M previously. Initial Jobless Claims (May 4) is expected to come in at 218K against 211K previously. This data is showing a continuing increase in the number of people who are jobless. US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) data will be released with an expected reading of 2.5% against 2.4% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) data will be released with an expected reading of 2.2% against 2.1% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) data will be released with an expected reading of 0.3% against -0.1% previously. Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (Apr) data will be released with an expected reading of 256.899 against 256.200 previously. These data points will provide an updated measure of the effect of inflation on consumers. Inflation is one of the main drivers of market sentiment in the US currently. The expectation is for an increase in consumer prices. USD crosses may see an increase in volatility from this data release.

At 18:00 GMT, The US Monthly Budget Statement (Apr) will be released with an expected balance of $193.75B from a previous $-209.00B. This data is expected to show a $400B swing into positive territory, as seasonal factors affect the calculation of this metric. This reading is expected to exceed the high from April 2017 of 182.4B. USD pairs may be moved by this data.

At 22:45 GMT, New Zealand’s PMI (Apr) reading is expected to be released with the previous reading coming in at 52.2. This was a further fall from the February reading of 55.6. NZD crosses could be impacted by this data release.


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