24 August, 2018
The Turkish financial markets will resume their work today. Investors are worried about the lira, because Erdogan still refuses to release American pastor Andrew Brunson, and the White House plans to put pressure on Turkey by means of new sanctions.
Societe Generale SA analysts shared their long-term USD / TRY forecast. The experts believe that the rate will rise by another 30%, that is, up to 8 liras per dollar.
Sometimes Mondays surprise you. A week ago, the euro strengthened against the dollar after the head of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann’s speech. Now volatility should still be weaker, as there is a bank holiday in the UK.
On Monday, the US will release Chicago Fed nat activity (CFNAI) and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity indexes. However, they would hardly have strong influence on the markets.
Fighting oil bulls and Conference Board statistics
The media reported that on August 28, the US plans to sell part of the strategic oil reserve to prevent the raw material prices from growing. On this day, traders may prefer to follow the actions of the US government, rather than to trade against it.
The report of August 22 revealed that inventories dropped by 5.84 million barrels. The Brent crude oil has grown by almost 3%, and the quotes got to important technical resistance. In this situation, a bearish scenario is the most likely one.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board releases the monthly statistics, which measures the consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their optimism about the future. We remind you that the consumer confidence index rose to 127.4 in July.
The verdict on Manafort’s case and US GDP
On August 29, Paul Manafort, President Donald Trump's former campaign chairman, is to be finally charged. The jury has already found him guilty on 8 counts of 18 financial crimes. The president tweeted that he feels “very badly” for Manafort.
Jeff Ifrah, Manafort’s attorney, believes that the defendant faces approximately 10 years in prison. In turn, the American leader sounds like he is thinking of pardoning Manafort. Trump does not hesitate to call him "a good man."
Today, the US release a revised GDP indicator in the second quarter. The forecast value is 4%, which does not really differ from the previous one.
The analysis of real US GDP gives an idea of what exactly influenced the economic growth. The consumption has grown by more than $ 100 billion, which is the greatest increase. And on the contrary, investments decreased to $ 3317 billion.
Victory Day in Turkey and unemployment rate in Germany
Turkey celebrates the national Victory Day. The country's stock exchanges will be closed on Friday, and the volume of trading lira will drop to a minimum.
The main economic events of Thursday are GDP of Canada and the unemployment rate in Germany.
In July, the unemployment rate was 5.2%, which is a normal figure for a developed economy. The reduction of unemployment and new jobs creation is a positive factor for GDP, and, consequently, for the growth of the national currency.
CME Bitcoin futures last trade date and Michigan consumer sentiment index.
It is the last day of trading bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The activity of the cryptocurrency market is expected to grow. The CME reports showed a low demand for the tool, which increases the chances of strong trends.
Investors are confused, because previously the US Security Exchange Commission refused to list Bitcoin ETFs in a regulated exchange. So far, no capital inflow is expected into the cryptocurrency market.
Also on Friday, Eurozone will release the consumer price index, and in the second half of the day, the University of Michigan will publish a revised consumer sentiment index.
Unfortunately, the data set of the University of Michigan is much smaller than that of the Conference Board. Therefore, the accuracy is much lower. We recommend that you pay attention to the Tuesday indicator before analyzing the forecast.
Olymp Trade wishes you successful transactions and excellent mood!
The week will be very important in terms of macroeconomic news. We expect high market volatility and recommend that you are especially careful when trading.
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