10 September, 2018
The UK news
This Monday, perhaps, will break the trend of a calm beginning of the week. Ð fairly large amount of macroeconomic statistics is to be released in London. The main event is the GDP indicator.
Pay attention to the data released by the British Retail Consortium, which analyzes the retail sales. There is again a slowdown in consumption in August, so the GDP growth may be close to zero again.
Also, the UK releases manufacturing production at 8:30 GMT.
A book about President Trump and Job Openings in the US
“Fear: Trump in the White House,” a controversial book by Bob Woodward comes out on Tuesday. The author is the editor of the Washington Post. A common American might find the material Bob had collected very interesting.
In the book, Woodward tells his readers about the disagreement of Trump’s subordinates with his actions, and also shares some insider information. For example, in one episode the US president wanted to assassinate Assad.
JOLTS Job Openings come out in the US today. Analysts forecast a decrease to 6.646 thousand in July. Although the Conference Board data, which were released earlier, indicated an increase in the number of vacancies.
Of course, the sampling of the CB is not as representative as the analysis of the Labor Department. Yet, we expect more positive news from American employers than the data suggested by economists.
Tesla’s rival, OPEC report and US inflation.
NIO, a Chinese company that makes electric cars, goes public today. The annual revenue of the company exceeds $ 12 billion. If investors believe in NIO Inc., the company will be able to compete with Tesla.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will publish its monthly oil market report. The cartel is likely to simulate a situation when the volume of Iran raw materials supplies drops sharply.
Oil prices are at three-year highs. Even the sale of US raw materials from the country’s own inventories didn’t change anything. The trade war between the States and China is the only factor that can affect the situation.
The US releases producer price (PPI) and consumer price indices (CPI) on different days. A report on PPI comes out on Wednesday, and economists predict a slowdown in inflation. The value of the CPI, which comes out on Thursday is likely to remain the same.
A recovery plan for Turkey and bank rates in the euro zone and the UK
Members of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will meet to discuss monetary policy. We remind you that after the disagreement between the US and the Republic of Turkey, the rate of lira declined by 25% against the dollar.
To reduce the devaluation, they reduced the volume of work with debt instruments. But now the country must adapt to the new economic realities. The results of the meeting can significantly affect the USD / TRY exchange rate.
Thursday is going to be the most important day of the week. Today, the meetings of the monetary authorities of the two largest world economies will be held.
Market participants are confident that ECB President Mario Draghi will keep the rate unchanged. Thus, as always, the European Central Bank’s comments will be put in the forefront. If there are any hints of further rate increases, the euro may rise against other currencies.
Meanwhile, in the European Union, it's a growing opinion that it would be a good thing to raise the interest rate. Not at once and not much, but the process of raising should begin. But there are risks for some countries’ economies.
For example, what will happen to the German real estate market, if the housing prices in Germany are already over the top? Or what will happen to the business in France, where the level of corporate debt is already high?
Comments at the meeting of Old Lady (Bank of England) will be also important. The uncertainty over Brexit has not gone, therefore, Mark Carney needs to be careful in both actions and statements like no other.
We still think that, unlike for the European Union, in the present conditions soft monetary policy is better for the UK than tough decisions.
Retail Sales in the US
Being one of the main indicators of consumption, Retail Sales in the US are important for the whole world. So pay attention to the statistics that comes out at 12:30 GMT. This news won’t disappoint the traders who like strong market movements.
The Olymp Trade company wishes you successful trades and great mood!
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