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The Sterling Flash Crash

Sterling’s overnight flash crash is the main talking point of markets at the start of the Friday session. As is the case with most such situations, the actual cause of the sharp decline at the start of the Asia session is not clear...

The euro snapback

The single currency has been most notable for the ever tighter trading ranges that have been in evidence in recent weeks. There was a slight wobble to that yesterday as the single currency gained on a story suggesting that the ECB...

Election countdown

We start a new month and quarter, which is likely to be increasingly taken over by the impending Presidential election in the US, something which the market has largely managed to ignore up to now. To this end, the US employment report, due for release at the end of this week...

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Moving on from the Fed

The reaction seen in currency markets yesterday to respective central bank policy decisions was instructive of the change in dynamics that we’re seeing. The BoJ enacted a number of changes to its policy regime...

Bank of Japan runs out of road

The Bank of Japan delivered a whole heap of nothing at its policy meeting today, although some adjustments were made to its policy framework. If you take the time to read through these measures, then the impression is of a central bank that has largely lost the monetary plot...

Sceptical equities

There was a definite yield differentiator on yesterday moves against the US dollar, which was generally in retreat. Those gaining the most were those with the highest interest rates, such as the South African Rand...


GBPUSD Near Major Resistance Levels

Yesterday the Bank of England announced the Inflation Report, stating that the BoE will implement further QE when it is necessary. The performance of the UK economy after the Brexit vote so far has been a bit better-than-expected. Yet we need more subsequent data to have a clearer picture...

That deja vu feeling

There is a strong feeling that we’ve been here before, exactly 12 months before to be exact. Markets got themselves into a frenzy that the Fed will hike in September, with Fed officials not standing in the way, only for the data to scupper things...

Chance of September Rate Hike Fades on Weak NFP

The US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for August were released on Friday. The NFP reading fell to 151k, lower than both expectations of 180k, and the previous figure of 255k in July...

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Shaping up for a volatile dollar

We enter a new month and it’s a month that is going to be pivotal for the dollar. The greenback has been clawing away at the prospect of a further rate increase from the Fed and tomorrow’s employment report could well determine whether the Fed has the ammunition to move rates higher later this month...

Has Yellen Dollar Bounce Gone Too Far?

Janet Yellen hawkish statement in Jackson Hole last Friday on 26th August has led to a dramatic move in the dollar. The dollar index reached the biggest intra-day rally of 1.48% since 24th June, the dollar strengthened across the board...

Dollar Rebounds after Hitting the Post Referendum Low

Despite the US labour market showing robust growth for two months, the appallingly low Q2 GDP and retail sales figures imply that economic growth and inflation rise are still weak...


US Retail Sales Will be the Key

The Retail Sales figure in June was robust, rising by 0.6% from 0.2% in the previous month, beating the expectation of 0.1%, has seen the third straight positive figure. YoY Retail Sales increased by 2.7%...

Advance Figures Weigh On U.S. Q2 GDP Forecast

The Atlanta Federal Reserve announced their second quarter GDP growth forecast of 1.8% from 2.3%. This was based on the data on wholesale and retail inventories in June released on Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau...

Splitting US jobs data

The US employment report will be crucial in setting the market tone ahead. With expectations for a move this year only around 10%, it’s a tall order to put it back on the table...

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Look beyond the index

As always, the FTSE 100 acts an illusory indicator of the UK economy. The fact is that it has recovered all of the losses seen in the wake of Brexit. Happy days I hear you say...

The end game approaches

Markets appear to be free-wheeling into the end of the week as they await the results of the UK EU referendum results on Thursday. The issue came up again at Yellen testimony on the economy yesterday...

It's all about Brexit

There was no escaping the size of the sterling surge yesterday, with cable seeing the biggest 1-day move since mid-December 2008. The rally was built on a growing belief that the UK referendum on EU membership is going to be a lot closer than was believed last week...


Pausing to Reflect

After the tragic events in the UK yesterday, there was a dramatic change in tone in the political environment with one week to go before the EU referendum. This was also reflected in markets, with campaigning on both sides having been suspended for the coming days...

Helpless Central Banks

From being the masters of markets in recent year, central banks are increasingly looking like the backroom boy; helpless against the uncertainties of the world. Once again, the world of BoJ Governor Kuroda involves him doing nothing and the yen rallying more than 2%...

Shifting Brexit Momentum

The latest polls ahead of the UK EU referendum have given a more convincing lead to the leave camp, which has weighed more heavily on sterling during Asia trade. The Sun newspaper, the most read in the country...


Reluctant New Highs for Equities

Stocks in the US squeezed out a new high for the year yesterday, but it has been a slow crawl higher in the wake of last Friday’s US Employment Report and the subsequent dovish tone to Yellen’s speech on Monday...

EU Referendum Draws Closer

The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, or, the EU Referendum, which will ask voters to choose whether or not the United Kingdom should remain in the European Union, is scheduled to take place on June 23, 2016...

The tilt towards June

There is a hesitant tone to markets towards the end of the week. The two factors contributing to this are the G7 meeting taking place in Japan and a scheduled speech by FOMC Chair Yellen later today. Both have the potential to shape the outlook for currencies going forward...


The Prospect of Yen Intervention

We should not be surprised that the yen is taking a breather after the out-sized moves at the end of last week. During the generally weaker dollar phase seen over the past 24 hours, it’s the only major currency to have weakened against the Greenback...

Central Bank Avenue Approaching

The Fed meeting today takes centre stage in the minds of the market, with everything else taking second place. That said, there is no real basis for the Fed in raising the rhetoric towards a further tightening given the run of data and events since the last meeting...

The Upward Pull on the Dollar

The interest rate markets are exerting a downward pull on EURUSD, which for the moment it’s doing its best to resist. US interest rate at the short end have been rising of late (2Y up 13bp past two weeks), but the dollar has been reticent to react in a meaningful way...


Launching the Euro Chopper?

Having supposedly thrown everything at the deflationary problem at their early March meeting, there is little expectation that the ECB is going to have anything substantial at today gathering to present to markets...

The euro's reluctance

The Canadian dollar was making new highs for the year yesterday against the background of a weaker Greenback. The past three sessions have seen USDCAD move lower, taking it below the 1.30 level on a sustained basis. It’s against this backdrop that the Bank of Canada meets today...

Changing the game plan in FX

Currency markets are in what can only be described as a state of flux at the moment. Leaving aside the yen, which has risen for the past seven consecutive sessions, we’ve seen the dominant trends of the past few weeks partially reversed (or at least stalled)...


  


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