OctaFX - Forex Market Analysiss

OctaFX
US dollar index within a narrow range

The index manages to keep business above the 95.00 handle. Yields of the US 10-year note extend the sideline theme near 3.17%. US housing sector...

OctaFX
Gold bears await a convincing break

The precious metal has managed to defend a short-term ascending trend-line support on the 1-hourly chart, albeit has struggled to gain any meaningful traction...

OctaFX
GBP/USD now eyes 1.3150 near term

The sudden and sharp burst higher in GBP yesterday was clearly unexpected. The rally is running too fast, too soon but there is scope for a move...

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Oil rebounds, set for third straight weekly rise

Oil benchmarks on both sides of Atlantic resumed its upward trajectory on Friday, reversing a temporary slide seen the day earlier and remain poised to book third straight week of gains...

Oil prices wobble as output freeze is viewed with skepticism

Oil prices recovered losses seen in early Europe, but gains are hard to come as markets believe next Sunday’s output freeze meeting in Doha is unlikely to help address supply glut issue...

Gold struggles to take out 5-DMA hurdle

Having ended on a weaker note on Friday despite broad based USD selling, Gold is having a tough time breaching 5-DMA hurdle at $1259.36 levels...


Buy the dips in USD towards 96.50/96.00

With that shift in the Fed’s tenor the USD should begin to benefit from a likely continued trend of more positive data surprises, our US data surprise index still some distance from hitting levels that warn a reversal is imminent...

European stocks rise in early trading

European equities advanced in early trading even though investors in Asia shied away from risk due to losses in commodities and Chinese equity markets...

Gold jumps above 1% on China rate cut

Currently, gold trades 1.18% higher at 1234.80, retreating slightly from fresh session highs printed at 1236.10 some minutes ago. The precious metal jumped nearly $ 4 after the Chinese central bank slashed the RRR by 0.5% in a bid to stimulate economic growth, which would in turn lift the demand for the bullion...

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Brexit: Major blow to Cameron bid to remain in EU

While sterling may garner a little solace from any pre-EU remarks from Carney today, in view of the real risk that the UK could vote to leave the EU in June, we have pushed up our 1 mth EUR/GBP forecasts to 0.79...

USD positioning remains constructive

Leveraged funds reduced their net long USD positions by USD1.5bn to USD22.6bn in the week ended 2 February, reversing the gain in the previous week...

GBP could gain from BOE message

Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the UK data has outperformed this week, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improving in contrast to weakening elsewhere...


European stocks rally after BOJ negative rate decision

European equities advanced after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) surprised markets by moving rates into the negative territory for the first time ever...

Fed provides a mixed message to markets

Research Team at Investec, notes that the FOMC held interest rates steady last night as expected and in their accompanying statement struck a cautious tone, modestly more dovish than some might have expected in some ways...

Rising overseas demand for USD liquidity

Research Team at ING, suggests that the idea that the basic mechanics of the Fed new normalisation tools could in effect see a transfer of US Treasury holdings from domestic to foreign institutions...

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European stocks rise ahead of the ECB rate decision

The stock markets across Europe advanced in early trading as investors expect ECB’s Draghi to hint at more easing in the near future. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index currently trades 1% higher near 3000 levels...

US CPI likely to head south

Research Team at Nomura, notes that the both US headline and core CPI were modestly stronger than expected in November as inflation of medical care service prices came in a little stronger than expected...

European stocks rally from 13-month lows, FTSE rejected at 10-DMA

The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index was up more than 2% before trimming gains to trade 1.9% higher on the day around 2990 levels. Among the regional indices, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and London’s FTSE advanced more than 1.5% each...


Oil drops sharply on mounting oversupply worries

The sentiment around the oil markets was hit badly this Wednesday, and the prices resumed the broader downtrend amid persisting supply glut worries ahead of the weekly EIA report...

US credit feels the pressure of high commodity exposure

Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that US credit markets have made a U-turn midway through 2015, as doubts began to surface with respect to issuer fundamentals, exposure to commodities and EM, and more recently even certain developed market names...

Is the possibility of rebalancing oil market in 2016 far-fetched

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories in the United States increased 2.6 million barrels last week. The figure is higher than the 2.5 million barrels estimated by analysts. The rise in crude inventory once again highlighted the global oil glut scenario...


Global growth will be disappointing and uneven in 2016

In a guest article for German newspaper Handelsblatt published on Wednesday, theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Christine Lagarde said that the global economic growth is expected to be disappointing next year...

US dollar trading narrowly mixed

The euro and yen remain within yesterday ranges, while sterling continues to trade heavily. The stabilization of oil prices has not lifted the Canadian dollar, while the other Antipodean currencies turn higher...

SAR still trailing the falling USD/HUF rate

We see an injection of volatility in the already heavy looking USD/HUF pair. The washout in today trading has expanded the Bollinger bandwidth indicator for four consecutive hours beyond the maximum width seen in a week of trading...


BoE re-pricing a near-term opportunity

Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING, suggests that with the Fed and ECB on a distinct path of policy divergence, the BoE have been caught in limbo when contending with the impact of powerful, albeit conflicting, spillovers from policies abroad...

Gold drops as dollar rallies

Gold prices dipped in Europe as the uptick in the treasury yields ahead of the FOMC meeting pushed the Greenback higher across the board...

Oil prices plunged 8% this week, worst fall since March

OPEC decision last week not to provide a new quota coupled with news yesterday that OPEC output rose in the lead-up to that meeting have pushed prices lower...


ECB smaller than expected stimulus

In the past one week leading to the European Central Bank meeting yesterday the markets had waiting in anticipation, speculating on the easing tools that the central bank would adopt to inject more capital into the system...

US dollar regains poise against Yen ahead of US data

The traders await the US ISM and Markit manufacturing PMI data in the US. Markets would be interested to see if the sector added jobs in November. Meanwhile, demand for the safe haven Yen could also be influenced by the action in the US stocks...

Gold revisits 5-year lows, USD index in three figures

The metal has managed to take back part of its losses to trade around USD 1066/Oz levels. The recovery in the European stocks followed by a move higher pushed the EUR/USD below 1.06 levels and triggered a broad based USD rally. Consequently, the USD index rose above 100.00 levels...



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