The Yen is Still Your Friend

December 11, 2013

The Yen is, as always, polarising traders and markets with its movements and nowhere is this more apparent than with the Euro currencies, where stark uptrends and bullish movements are the flavour of the month.  Currently, the Pound, Euro and Swiss Franc are all gaining ground against the Yen and this trend looks unlikely to stop in the near term, as all the currencies experience a resurgence in economic growth in their respective economies, and a boost in market optimism.

Source: Blackwell Global Trader

The EURJPY pair is currently pushing aggressively upwards and looking to break 142 as market sentiment lifts heavily in favour of the Euro currency. Overnight, we saw a slight pull back but in reality, market sentiment is aggressively vying to push it higher. This is reinforced by very strong buying pressure still being prevalent, coupled with the fact that it has not touched on its recent trend line and still looks capable of going higher.

Source: Blackwell Global Trader

The GBPJPY pair looks very similar to the EURJPY pair and rightfully so, as both currencies are going through a resurgence, though one could easily argue that the pound has been doing better than the Euro and in some parts helped push it higher. However, once again a slight pullback but still not touching the trend line currently in play. The RSI also shows that despite pressure weakening, there is certainly still pressure there and the market is keen to buy.

Source: Bloomberg

Overall though, we can certainly see that the two pairs are very closely related and that any movement in one is likely to affect the other. With this in mind, it's clear that news for one zone is clearly likely to affect the other and then when trading either the EURJPY or GBPJPY, it’s important to note economic news from all 3 zones for the currencies.

I have also noted the CHFJPY pair in my introduction..

Source: Blackwell Global Trader

However, the Swiss Franc is currently still pegged to the Euro and so any movement in the EURJPY is essentially replicated by the CHFJPY; otherwise arbitrage takes over and brings it in line regardless. I believe that yes, you can trade this pair, but in reality, movements in the EURJPY pair are much greater so the opportunity is certainly there for greater profitably in the long run.

 Overall though, there is certainly aggressive upward trends in the works, and at the current moment, markets are looking to see if these uptrends can continue. If they can, we will know by the end of this week. If they can’t, we might find out shortly as it crashes through its current bullish uptrend and looks to pressure downwards to its weekly trend line for both pairs. Either way, both of these major pairs replicate each other and are still providing opportunities for traders to take advantage of and are certainly interesting to watch.

Written by Alex Gurr, Currency Analyst at Blackwell Global.

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