Forecast for the week 30.06.2014 - 04.07.2014

June 30, 2014

The most important macroeconomic events will occur next week on Thursday before Independence Day in the United States, when the June data on the U.S. labor market will be published, as well as the ECB's decision on key interest rate. After the recent decline in the lending interest rate from 0.25% to 0.15%, the ECB is likely to refrain from further easing of the monetary policy in the euro zone. We believe that the European regulator will want to better analyze the positive developments in the euro zone’s real economy sector after the expansion of the money supply. In the EURUSD pair, a consolidation in the range of 1,3600-1,3700 is expected during the coming week .

Publication of the June data on the labor market in the United States is unlikely to change the timing of closing up of the QE3 program, given the reduction in GDP of the world's largest economy in the 1st quarter of 2014 by 2.9% (q. / q.). The Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar will be supported not only by the fall in yields of U.S. treasuries by 50 bp since the beginning of the year (in 10-year bonds), but also by the expectations of growth of business activity indices of Tankan, Japan’s largest manufacturer in the 2nd quarter. 2014. During the week, the USDJPY pair may experience the 2014 low around the 100.80 mark.

Next week, the commercial commodity currencies will be in awe as they track the PMI indices for the month of June on the 2nd largest energy consumer in the world - the U.S. and China. Particular attention will be riveted to the Australian dollar - July 1, Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its decision on the key interest rate. It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged at 2.50%. On Wednesday, July 2, the May statistics on Australia's trade balance will be released against which the AUDUSD pair may be consolidated above the resistance level of 0.9460. 

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