Forecast for the week August 18, 2014 - August 22, 2014

August 18, 2014

This week, attention should be paid to the publication of the minutes from the last US Federal Reserve meeting, as well as the meeting of representatives of central banks and leading economists at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole. At the time, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan used the annual meeting in Wyoming as a platform for important announcements. This year, a possible comment made by Janet Yellen concerning the terms of increase in key interest rates in the United States, may trigger the curtailing of the carry trade operations in global financial markets.

Tuesday to Thursday, the July statistics on consumer inflation, as well as the data on home sales in the United States will be released. Against the background of the expected consolidation of the world's reserve currency, we do not exclude the EURUSD pair falling to the support level of 1.3335.

In the light of the soft statements coming from the Bank of England, involving an interest rate rise in the UK, only in Q1 of 2015, on Tuesday, buyers of the British currency will be closely monitoring the inflation rates in the country, especially the consumer price index. On Wednesday and Thursday, the volatility of the pound strengthened against the background of the release of the Bank of England's August meeting minutes, as well as the July data on retail sales in the UK. During the week, a consolidation of the pound range 1.6650-1.6750 is expected.

August 21 will be a landmark day for the commodity currencies. On this day, HSBC and Markit will submit a preliminary report for this month on the index of business activity in China's manufacturing sector. In the case of the growth rate above 52 p., the AUD / USD and NZD / USD pairs are likely to test the levels of 0.9370 and 0.8550, respectively.

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