The euro did not find a reason for growth

December 1, 2014

The euro/dollar "faded" by the end of the week, although it is worth noting that recovery attempts were quite productive and interesting. There were not many statistics yesterday – the US is celebrating Thanksgiving. All the attention of the market on this "vague" external background was drawn towards the meeting of the OPEC cartel, which still left oil production at the same level.

This morning statistics came out on retail sales in Germany in October with seasonal adjustment – the indicator added 7% y/y with a growth forecast of 1.5% y/y.

Today the data on inflation in the euro area in November will be published, and investors are nervous. The averaged market forecast shows the level of expectation of 0.3% y/y, which is below the previous level of 0.4% y/y.

These statistics are very important in the run-up to next week and the next meeting of the European Central Bank. If inflation is fading away, despite low interest rates and the underweight-QE, therefore, the monetary policy is not working. If the inflation data will come out weak, the euro/dollar will be able to retreat to 1.24.
 
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