All is not well in Asia

8 December, 2014

It has been a massive day of data misses in Asia, with economic numbers from both China and Japan printing well below expectations. Prior to this the Nikkei jumped to a new 7.5-year high above 18,000, albeit briefly, on the back of a surge in USDJPY after an incredible US jobs report on Friday. Not only was the headline jobs number higher than the market’s wildest expectations (321K jobs were created in November), the inner workings of the report were also largely positive (average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m).

Japan’s data misses estimates

Weak Japanese economic figures quickly put an end to the rally in the Nikkei. Final GDP figures for Q3 were released and they were even worse than the preliminary numbers and way worse than the improved expectations of the market. GDP fell 0.5% SA q/q last quarter, missing an expected 0.1% fall and a preliminary figure of -0.4%. It was a similar story on an annualized basis, with GDP falling 1.9% SA q/q (expected -0.5%; prior -1.6%). Still, this is an improvement from Q2’s tax hike affected numbers.

China’s soft trade numbers increase the likelihood that Beijing will loosen policy further

In China, November’s trade surplus jumped to its highest level on record at $54.47bn. This was largely the result of plummeting imports, which fell 6.7% y/y, completely missing an expected 3.8% rise. Exports also failed to live up to expectations with a measly 4.7% y/y gain (expected 8.0%). Both sides of the trade equation should be concerning to Beijing. The soft import number reaffirms a lack of domestic demand in China (it’s worth noting that this is partly due to weaker commodity prices, particularly for oil), while the export data indicates a lack of demand for Chinese goods. The former is expected to support growth in the future and the latter supports growth now. Overall, it reinforces our belief that more stimulus is on its way from Beijing, possibility in the form of a RRR cut before year-end.

AUD and NZD react poorly to China’s economic data

Both the aussie and kiwi took a hit on the back of today’s disappointing Chinese economic data. NZDUSD and AUDUSD were already on the back foot after Friday’s stunning US jobs report, and today’s numbers haven’t helped. AUDUSD is getting very close to the key psychological zone around 0.8000. A break of this level would likely be a big blow for the pair. NZDUSD is also suffering and the pair created a new 2.5-year low on the combination of USD strength and China’s soft economic data.

Source link  
Gold surges to major $1250 resistance as uncertainty prevails

Gold surged Thursday on a breakout of its previous consolidation to hit and slightly exceed major technical resistance at $1250, a level not seen since early November...

Gold remains vulnerable amid hawkish Fed, strong dollar, equity highs

Gold has climbed sharply since the beginning of the year as the US dollar has pulled back from its late-2016 highs and the US Federal Reserve has exercised characteristic restraint in raising interest rates further after the last rate hike in December...

Gold well-supported on safe-haven flows, lagging dollar

Increasing political and economic uncertainties under the new Trump Administration, coupled with a sliding US dollar since the beginning of the year, have led to a sharp rise in gold prices for more than a month...

Gold pressured as dollar and equities remain supported

As the US dollar found some new life on Thursday and US equity markets hovered right around their new all-time highs, gold extended its recent pullback well below the $1200 handle. Since late December, the price of gold had been in a sharp relief rally from its 10-month lows around $1125 support...

Crude oil maintains bullish trend

Oil prices were initially weaker at the start of the new week, but they have now recovered to trade almost flat at the time of this writing. At the weekend, the OPEC and some producers outside of the group met to discuss the progress of their oil production deal...

Trump press conference fails to deter equity bulls

President-Elect Donald Trump spoke on Wednesday morning at his first formal press conference since the November elections, and the markets were all ears. Trump covered a lot of ground with multiple topics that included...

Gold ripe for potential relief rally

The charts tell a clear story of the unrelenting plunge in gold prices since early November. This steep dive has been the result of several related factors, all of which have the potential to extend well into the new year. These largely Trump-driven factors include...

Could EUR/USD finally break 1.05 on this FOMC day?

The market is demanding a rate rise and the Fed better deliver it today, for if it doesn’t the bank’s credibly will be severely damaged. There is really no excuse not to do so. Economic data has been improving, financial markets are calm...

Mixed Jobs Report Keeps High Fed Expectations Intact

As we noted the day before Friday’s US jobs report, only a significantly worse-than-expected reading for November would have likely made the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision more difficult...

In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 7.75% and reached $3847.15386707. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -0.0395% and is now at $1.1371. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has gained 15.88% and is now at $105.655201574. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.

Top Brokers offering Forex Market Analysis

Forex Currencies Forecasts

Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
6FIBO GroupFIBO Group84%